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  • mikebert mikebert Feb 10, 1998 5:44 PM Flag

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    Officially, by the numbers, we have just had a correction. On 10/7/97 the S&P500 reached an all-time high of 983. Twenty
    days later was the crash day when it closed at 877, down 11% from the high and by definition (>10%), an official correction.
    But on 12/5, only 9 days later, it reached 943, only 4% off the all-time high and by 12/5 it had reached a new high. The extreme
    brevity of the price drop did not give it enough time to significantly dampen the irrational exuberance, which is what corrections
    are suppose to correct. Think about it, didn't the April 97 slide feel a lot worse than October. The latter was sort of
    depressing whereas October was sort of exciting, especially after the big bounceback the day after the crash.

    The point of my message is that we haven't had an effective correction in almost a year, not enough time has passed since the October crash for the faundamentals to have changed significantly, yet the market is priced now at about the same or maybe a little higher than it was then. If a bubble existed in the market in October, then we have to conclude that one exists now. If the bubble could pop in October, then it can pop again.

    I suggested April because April is a tradionally poor month like October, but of course, it could come anytime, or not at all.

34.945-0.155(-0.44%)10:03 AMEDT