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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • amdmonkey72 amdmonkey72 Oct 22, 2011 10:13 AM Flag

    So will hard drive shortage hurt Intel?

    Likely, this is not good as far as volume of unit sales go.

    The only thing that would help is if the panic buying were to allow Intel to also raise the prices of its CPUs.
    However, this would mean Intel would purposely have to cut down on manufacturing now.

    Now I know this is obvious to all but what on earth is the computer industry doing relying upon parts built in a flood plain? Talk about stupid.

    Yes I know Intel and AMD and Apple and the rest did not build in a flood plain but they all rely upon hard drives made by idiot companies who do make in a flood plain.

    If the Fabs in Thailand take a few months to start up again, this will get ugly.

    Oh well

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    • Idle power is great: near zero.
      READ time is great: zero rotational latency and seek time.
      WRITE time is not as stellar: similar to rotating if my memory is correct.

      Early drives have problems with wear out and with a roll off in performance as the drive firmware begins to shuffle blocks for "wear out" prevention.

      Be sure to have drive error (wear) monitor programs enabled or recent data backups.

      On drive redundancy for ECC and open free space for data wear shuffling is why they get the strange disk drive sizes like 80gb for the Intel drive.

    • Intel has much better data on inventory levels of hard drives and the ability of its multiple sources to ramp up if necessary. I would expect more of a shortage on sole hard drive units that go into PC after the PC has been bought. I would definitely not pay any attention to analysts that are just speculating as to what will happen. So far Intel is relatively confident that all orders will be met.

      • 1 Reply to paul.ottelini
      • Intel will have no problem producing CPU and there is no dependency on the Thailand area.

        Hard drive manufactures like WDC who have factories there, will definately be impacted. Hard drives require a dust-free, clean room environment for their manufacture. Drive size (3.5in vs 2.5in vs. ...) might be built at certain factories located in the area and have constraint.

        The components required by the hard drives manufacturer such as the metal parts, semiconductor components, connectors, and all the other small parts ... could possibly have some dependency on a dominant source in Thailand. That is what Seagate is suggesting might be a factor. They are checking now to see.

        There are finished drives in the channels and those have been accounted for. Hard disk drive sales are being cancelled or scaled back.

        The EXACT same issues have to be considered about SSD drives. There has been a massive conversion to SSD from rotating media. WDC has seen their volumes and sales decline for the last 3 quarters. That suggests excess capacity in the industry.

        The drives will be directed to the market with the highest margins and with contracts in place. Server vendors will get their drives. High end computer verdors will get their drives. The victim will be any application with a low margin price.

        IMO, there is some slack in the production pipeline. It was not operating at 100% capacity. There were drives in the channels and warehouses. The market will become efficient in allocating them.

        It still may or may not be a problem but I think it will be most felt by WDC who will not be able to build product.

    • Geez. How about this - those HDD manufacturers/components not impacted raises production?? Listen to Intel, not analysts who are trying to scare investors.

      • 1 Reply to backbay_bstn
      • Definitely!
        Listen to Intel. They have been much more accurate than just about every analyst and research firms such as IDC and Gartner.
        In fact, Intel has been conservative enough in their guidance to positively surprise themselves as well. Memory chip makers and storage device makers have always had high inventory issues and this flood should not change things much. Common sense says that competitors will be more than happy to fill in the void created by WDC.

    • Trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.

      You still have Hitachi and Samsung plus some online capacity of Western Digital and Seagate. There are work around with hard drives.

      The analysts who make a living off of manipulating Intel's stock will use any story, no matter how plausible to downgrade Intel.

    • hector_cornholed_amders hector_cornholed_amders Oct 22, 2011 11:04 AM Flag

      Unless there is some solution that I do not see, YES.

      • 1 Reply to hector_cornholed_amders
      • "avoid Intel"


        Intel on Tuesday said the flooding would not affect the PC market in the fourth quarter.

        Since then, details about the damage to Western Digital's factories in Thailand have caused some analysts to believe a shortage of hard drives could start interfering with PC production in December.

        "There's a major disconnect here. We don't see how they can not be affected and we're recommending investors avoid Intel at these levels," said Brad Gastwirth, co-founder of ABR Investment Strategy, an independent research firm.

        Western Digital said Thailand accounts for 60 percent of drive production. Its customers have about two weeks of inventory on hand and distributors have around four weeks of supplies.

        As those inventories get used up, the supply of hard drives may be about 10 percent less than demand for the December quarter, estimated Rodman & Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar.

        With production in Thailand likely to be constrained for several weeks, customers will face larger shortages in early 2012, IHS iSuppli analyst Fang Zhang said.

        No. 2 PC maker Dell said the flood would have little impact on its quarter ending this month but did not say how it expected to be impacted beyond then.

        A Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ - News) spokesman declined to comment.

        (Reporting by Noel Randewich, additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee in New York; Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)

    • what panic buying of h.d. or CPUs?

      I'm not sure what's the exact situation there in Thailand and how much the h.d. companies suffer from it, any relevant links anyone..

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