Not saying anything about ARMH from a technical perspective but yes Walley is right, fabs will be a concern. My largest concern about ARMH is the P/E ratio. If you give it an Intel P/E than ARMH is a $5 stock. The rest is a premium. Along with the premium is the assumption that you will make some sick, fat profits.
ARMH has moved up from 2010 and will continue to grow sales, but now we are starting to learn what to expect from the company. Can the company double in size in 12 months? Probably not, can it achieve 20 percent growth? Perhaps.
When the hypergrowth story doesn't play out and more time goes by and the company is achieving nice sales but not the insane sales that are predicted, the P/E will start to slide down regardless of increases in sales.
The worst thing ARMH has going against it isn't Intel, it's the many articles written about it that create an unrealistic expectations about it's future. One article I read said that ARMH will own nearly 1/3 of the server market sales by the end of 2012. I am willing to bet everything I own that this won't happen. Intel said that market will be about 15% of the entire market by 2015.
When you buy ARMH you are in bed with some large institutional investors. These are the most fickle bunch of people on the planet. They'll pull out and move money to a video game company next week if they think they will make more money.
Can ARMH go to $50 next year? Maybe, but it's just as likely to crash down to 15. This could be the single best time to buy ARMH, but I think a better time was when it was around $20 a share.
Intel is a longer term gamble. It's going to earn each dollar uptick. Not as interesting, but I do expect we'll be in the 30's next year. ARMH? Who knows? It's price depends on selling the Cinderella story.