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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • armroadkill armroadkill Mar 31, 2012 3:44 PM Flag

    Come ON MAN! You know Intel is going to 40.

    What is up with you so called analysts?

    I see Apple is rated a strong buy or a buy from all but 1 of 50 of you guys. Now I love Apple but come on man, what are you smoking? That stock is North of 600 based upon a net profit of 13 billion dollars last quarter. I might be a little slow but I know a company making 13 billion is likely near its high. But ok, I will watch and see. Maybe Apple makes Apple cars that run on hydrogen like Jobs wanted and the stock goes to 2000. Maybe it makes robots for homes. But I gotta see something soon or I am going to have to go short Apple based on these likely things to happen.
    Apple will have its phones and Ipads attacked from all sides by over 30 different companies. Even if sales continue to go up, they price on the Apple products will have to go down 50% or more.

    Now Intel. COME ON MAN--what are you smoking.
    You are pricing it as though little old ARM is gonna win this fight. That is beyond stupid because Intel already has it beat in performance with the first phone chip it made and the 2nd one comes out late this year and it will bury the Arm chips and make them into a joke in comparison to the Intel chip.

    When Apple and Samsung and most other phone companies go to the Intel CPU, you guys at those investment firms are gonna look real stupid.
    I read that Intel will do three shrinks from here before 2015 ends. How in heck can Arm stay in the game? It cannot. So are you saying Intel is not gonna do this? Because Intel has done all that it said it was going to do for quite some time now. You are making some super crazy bet in betting against Intel in phones and in betting on armh.

    Last--you say the companies hate Intel and therefor will not use Intel CPUs. Apple uses Intel now.

    See my point.

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    • Now Intel. COME ON MAN--what are you smoking.
      You are pricing it as though little old ARM is gonna win this fight. That is beyond stupid because Intel already has it beat in performance with the first phone chip it made and the 2nd one comes out late this year and it will bury the Arm chips and make them into a joke in comparison to the Intel chip.
      -----

      Intel hasn't beat on performance. Intel has claimed it is on top on one *benchmark* type (Javascript) and every month that goes by 'faster' phones are entering the market...

      Given the price of a phone SoC ($20) you can run the numbers your self. How many will Intel need to sell to make any material impact to it's EPS (make up a margin number)? Intel's growth/profit in the next few years will come from servers and not from phones.

      • 2 Replies to theblueredmonk
      • Good point about EPS. It does bring up the question, why is Intel so excited about entering the low cost, low margin world of smart phones? The answer is when you are on top you want to stay on top. There is no guarantee that any large corporation with a substantial lead can stay on top. Take for example, Kodak.

        If you were a dictator for example and one day you heard about a small militia in small town gathering money, supplies, troops and weapons you handle the problem the old fashioned way. You send your military to mow them down. You know that 30 or 40 men can grow into 3000 men and force an overthrow.

        Without a doubt the small militia that has caused the greatest challenge has been ARM. RISC processors have come in and out of fashion for years. ARM has been the single most credible threat to Intel in years. The threat has been verbalized by ARMH to its investors. They plan to start off with phones and tablets then to PC's and then to servers. And all of this is happening now, ARM will be in PC's this year and servers next year.

        In a classical war model there are ways to take out the front line. You can go into head to head combat. Or you can take out their roads and bridges so that their supply line is cut. It's hard for your opponent to fight when they are out of ammo and starving.

        Intel's mission is to cut into the funding of the ARM advancement is by taking sales away. They don't care as much about making low cost low margin phone processors. What they do care about is reducing the risk of ARM making a large and credible threat on PC's and servers.

        They have done this with a tic/toc model of fab development forcing ARM into a perceived fabrication crises on newer models. Their reference smart phone designs can make it very hard for consumers to justify paying premium dollars for marginal performance improvements. And Intel will help phone companies advertise Intel CPU based phones.

        At this point it's too late for Intel to prevent TSMC from making 28nm processors or GF and Samsung 32nm processors. The problem is at these nodes the payback period is much longer than at 40/45 nodes. Cutting into sales means that they will be stuck in these nodes for an extended period of time. TSMC is playing with 20nm right now, but it's going to be many years before they can spit out 20nm processors into the market by the truckload on a daily basis.

        I know people on here get emotional at times. ARM isn't going away, they won't be put out of business by Intel. But their market advancements are about to be very much challenged. At the high end of the cutting edge part of their business model they are facing a competitor who can not only afford to take them on, but seriously impact the demand for their high end processors.

      • You are missing the point sir. Intel will stake a sizable claim in market share for these near-zero margin devices, but clean up all the treasure in supporting all these wonderful toys with servers.

        If ARM camp wants to get into a knock down drag off fight over cost, they should go for it. Either way, the more of these connected toys out there, the better for Intel's fortunes.

      • 1 Reply to intelphonechips
      • dude, 10nm is years away. Process at 10nm is very difficult. 10nm is the limit to go below 10nm you will need to use different materials, not with silicon. 10nm is a deadend unless we come up with different material, i heard ibm was experimenting with some different material but did not get a hang of it. will do some research here. Intel plant in AZ due to come online in 2013 will be state of the art 450nm plant. have fun and GL

 
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