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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • maximum_probability maximum_probability Apr 18, 2012 7:37 AM Flag

    The truth behind the numbers and trading

    First of all the most important thing after earnings is the conviction reinforcement into the future. All that matters is that intel remains a good idea. Always look for hints against that to hedge properly. As long as earnings and what they say paint a good picture forget about stock price reaction and justify it as part of trading games/manipulation/overbought conditions and the stupid irrational refusal of this idiotic market to take a bloody dive and keep it for a couple of weeks to relax this bs that has been going on for 4 months now as if corrections are no longer part of a bull market. Yes it has been so long without a true buy signal while rising slowly and never correcting and we only got one recently at 27.45 that i aborted as posted at 28.3 and suggested puts over 28.45 even. A drop is needed but its not about the fundamentals. This is what idiot liars will tell you with bs headlines like down 13% etc. Telling lies with numbers without looking at the detail and the joke is that the projections were for exactly these and lower numbers. so why on earth is it suddenly news that -13%???

    Basically the numbers are just fine but do not expect idiot analysts and reporters to tell you the truth now of course not!!! They do suggest that as i have been saying for months now the hard drive bs debacle is the massacre of the decade and the HD companies are pure scums the way they tried to milk all this disgrace. Hard drive prices by the way remain 35%+ more expensive than last summer even today and were 50% or more higher in January. So the shortages and the high prices clearly forced a reduction in pc sales or inventory creation etc. What did you expect? But of course eventually this bs will go away and either this quarter or next we will see that development. Not only that but the company increased expenses in research and development. Why on earth do this if you are not happy with what it will give you in the future? Its very bullish to see the company invest to research more.

    Furthermore we had 12 vs 13 weeks in the quarter vs last year. So right there you have it. The stupid headline will say 13% down from last year which of course sounds pathetic but the fact is that instantly 1/13 (60%) of that is due to less weeks. So hard drive issue and weeks issue and more research expense actually mean that intel is doing better than last year if you have your eyes open to see behind the numbers. Basically with the same weeks and same research and development expenses as last year and no HD problem you would have had higher earnings than last year. These are in fact the real earnings, the ones you would have had if you adjusted for what is irregular this time around. Otherwise you become the idiot that concluded intel has topped and earnings are now declining again.

    Now the fact intel was again overbought is another issue. The fact that it failed to properly correct exactly like sp500 actually for over 4 months and that people forgot about fear and volatility tanked is why you eventually have the risk of a serious drop at any point. Is this now starting? I dont know but intel was in sell signal over prices that i said recently to buy puts from (ie over 28.45 levels).

    Keep in mind that it will be very healthy for intel and sp500/nasdaq to tank the hell out of it here say up to 10% why not. Fear and volatility rise is very bullish. If only we were that lucky to see intel at 26 in a week or 2 in some panic lol!!!

    Any drop here if significant (unless they pull a trick and gap down at open to rebuy it fast and rally over 28.5 by close to trap even more people later for the real drop) will be a buying opportunity. Intel will top 30 eventually this year and then some. Intel to 100 eventually and then some. And you will be afraid that on the way to 100 you have some stupid gaps here there , sure lol!!!

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    • "Intel will top 30 eventually this year and then some. Intel to 100 eventually and then some. And you will be afraid that on the way to 100 you have some stupid gaps" --- maximum_probability, April 18, 2012

      No wonder he's mad.

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