Intel has a long term plan to set the dividends at 40% of profits. The dividend level will typically lag the profit levels are currently at 30%. This implies there is some headroom between the 30% and 40%. Profits can drop down or dividends can be bumped up toward the 40% of profits level.
Beyond the profits target, Intel has even a larger buffer between its cash flow and the dividend payment.
The dividend is very well covered.
Your $23 target is close but I have not surprised at what analysts are saying. Bernstein even said that Q3 might be good but the future quarters are going to be a problem. Berstein has shifted the date out 6 months.
We should also hear from Nomura, Romit Shah tomorrow and he will echo the bad news. He will maintain his REDUCE and also lower his target below his current $22. Romit likes to take his target down to CURRENT PRICE minus $2.