There are a lot of things that could impact Intel. Most will impact other countries too. If you look at the YCHARTS chart of Intel REVENUE TTM it shows a stead up line which doubled during the last 10 years. Rule of 75 suggests that was an average of 7.5% during the last 10 years. Even across the collapse.
The Intel stock price (as driven by the analysts) over the past 10 years has forecast SIX of the last TWO Intel downturns. 8-)
Intel operates within the economic RIVER or TIDES or put your analogy here .... and that will influence Intel operations substantially.
My observations are that Haswell silicon based systems are being deployed at SW and HW OEMs today. I expect that the Intel 16-inch guns have been directed at low power operation and Haswell will make a big differnce.
Intel 22nm yield is so high they have an extra fab that can be mothballed or diverted or deployed to build other parts.
4% seems low and the numbers have been questioned by Intel. Intel numbers have been questioned by the analysts. Reports are mixed but generally above the pessamistic targes.
The key will be top line growth.
20% .... no.
10% .... more likely
4% .... unlikely