Within 2-3 years, it is just as likely that the US will have another recession.
There is no such thing as an excellent long term investment in a semiconductor stock. Both INTC and the SMH are well below the peaks they reached off the o3 bottom way back in 2004, the SMH was 45.00, INTC was 34.00. Both made lower lows in 2009 than in 2003, the SMH had gone to 15.00. INTC at 12.00, a mere 66 percent off the highs for the SMH, falling far more than the nasdaq.
When, not if, another recession hits, they will once again, as recently, dramatically underform the market. All in all chips are just a commodity, useless without demand for the product they go into as evidenced by AMD's need to write down the cost of useless chips headed to the chip graveyard.