Guys, this is a $2K+ chip and can be viewed as an ultra extreme edition chip. Sell a million chips a year and Intel has made another $2bn revenue ! Nvidia has shown that there is a viable market for these devices and Phi is far more usable as you can just recompile existing x86 code on it as well as mixing it up with Xeons on expensive servers. Forget the dumb herd's mobile obsession Phi will probably bring more profit to Intel sooner if they can make enough of them quickly enough.
Phi is a niche. Selling one million units a year would mean something like one in every fifteen server CPUs would be a Phi - that probably won't happen for a long time. Phi looks like a defensive product, an attempt to keep GPGPUs at bay, but initially may not even be making a net profit.
Of course, supercomputing is the one area where Wallis's dream of a huge fabrication win really means something. The trouble is, even if they win the same 94% of the supercomputing CPU market Intel has in the overall server market it isn't enough to pump up the stock price. Intel either figures out mobile computing or IMO there's a good chance they will be a future division of Qualcomm or some other company that has. Unless Intel's market cap goes up in two years Apple will be able to buy them, for cash.
The Texas TACC Stampede will be configured with 6,400 Dell DCS Zeus compute nodes, each with two 2.7 GHz E5-2680 Intel Xeon (Sandy Bridge EP) processors. It is targeted to have 6,400 PHI. They have connected 1 PHI for each Sandy Bridge EP. The PHI bandwidth probably makes it impractical to connect more than 1 per CPU. I don't know what the real phyical limit is.
The population of sockets is not, however, limited to servers. There are workstations too. Gamers? Is Intel working with game developers? There will also be substantial price elasticity. The PCI add in board will find additional installations as they are able to drop the price. Workstations are also targets.
The Intel C and Fortran compilers will make it easy for people to build code that take full advantage of the PHI and capture near 100% of its compute capability. MATLAB, simulations, modeling, ...
I have an Intel Core i7 Ivy Bridge desktop and I have been watching for PHI to hit retail and drop to my price point. I am cheap so it will be awhile but I can put it on my Wish list.
I suspect that a sizable number of Quadros solds in Workstations are used as gpgpus due to many workstation app vendors doing gpgpu ports. Phi will expand the market due to the sheer amount of x86 HPC code already out there that can be easily recompiled and accelerated. $1-2bn Phi revenue within 3 years will be the result I suspect.
I appreciate your posts. I tried to add facts and analysis on other boards and often get bashed as well. I'm long 800 ATM LT call contracts on this stock now. Will likely target 2400-4000 if it falls further. Simply stated, INTC will be the winner in any environment of economic stress. Macro will provide tailwinds, not headwinds, for INTC and in a big way. I'll explain more later, but most everybody is playing the "barbell" strategy completely wrong.