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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Jan 18, 2013 12:31 PM Flag

    Bad News for Shorts

    The bad news for shorts is that you are done for the year and most likely for the decade.

    The reasons are simple.

    1.) There wasn't any bad Intel news in the earnings report. There was the same ole mantra about sluggishness in PC sales of course but we knew that. And it's been baked in for six months now. For two quarters in a row, Wall Street has projected huge misses and they just didn't happen.
    2.) There was the red herring about excessive Capex, which is, of course, not excessive. Otellini explained it but the analysts simply aren't smart enough to understand. No surprise there. Intel is building for the future with 450mm which they will use to crush ARMs economics but it's highly unlikely there will be anything left to crush by the time it arrives. Intel will have 10 and 7nm production by then.
    3.) The economic news continues to be good and that's good for Intel. The US and Chinese economies are moving on up. Bump for Intel.
    4.) Intel is still two bucks off the November low. The Q1 guidance is very conservative and Intel will beat it along with shorts, shills and analysts without breaking a sweat.
    5.) We have the Cisco news and Mobile World Congress to provide a lift. By Q2, things will be looking better. Another beat for Intel as guidance will continue to be conservative for the first half of the year.
    6.) By Q3 the world economy is going to be exceeding expectations and Haswell will be kicking in. By then, the Intel fabrication story will be getting traction as Intel's technology looks better and better as ARMs fabrication efforts fade to black. ARM has until July 1 to produce 20nm in volume. It will never happen. After that ARMs fabrication demise will start to crush their competitiveness. The ARM fabrication roadmap ends at 20nm planar.
    7.) The major story out of the earnings call was that not a single analyst talked about fabrication. They are simply too ignorant. As is just about everyone on Wall Street. And it's all about the fabrication. Paul and Stacy talked about 22, 14 and 10nm production. Intel is currently working on 10nm. That's totally amazing but apparently not something the analysts have considered. At all. Oh, well. They will, they will.
    8.) In Q4, Intel's 14nm production will show up and it's game over. ARM has nothing to compete with it. Nothing.

    Q1: Conservative guidance, easy beat. Cisco and MWC 2013 bumps.
    Q2: More conservative guidance, economies beat expectations, PC sales move up, another easy beat
    Q3: Haswell arrives, ARMs fabrication fade to black, Intel builds momentum
    Q4: Intel 14nm arrives, game over, Intel stock price doubles from 1/18/2013.

    So, there you have it. I hope shorts enjoy this little downturn. It's your last hurrah.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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