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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 19, 2013 8:17 PM Flag

    If Intel's growth was more evenly distributed...

    their current numbers would have looked very healthy regarding PC growth.
    Going back to the 3rd quarter of 2009, when Intel's revenues were a solid $9.4 Billion for that time.
    Much higher than any of the expectations by analysts.
    If Intel grew seasonly from that point forward, such as minus 5% for Q1 sequentially, flat for Q2, 7% for Q3 and another very healthy 7% for Q4 sequentially, that would be a steady 8.5% or more growth annually. Expectations for Q1 of 2013 should be about $12.2 Billion. Yet Intel's guidance was about $12.7 Billion. The only reason growth is looking so weak is due to a very strong, much better than expected 2010 and 2011 sales. Especially 2011. PC client group revenue for Q3 of 2009 was $7.06 Billion. For 2012, it was $8.633 Billion. That does not sound like the PC is dying to me. It sounds more like it had a huge growth cycle in 2010 and 2011, and the new hybrid versions will help propell growth once again by Q3 of 2013.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • So did tablets, or more precisely, iPads cannibalized PC sales?

      While Intel sold $7.06 Billion in Q3 of 2009, a very strong quarter for Intel, there were no iPads yet available.

      A year later, Intel sold $8.055 Billion for the PC client group when Apple sold 4.19 million units of iPads during its second quarter of release.

      Another year later, the iPad sales exploded to 11.12 million units for the coinciding quarter against Intel's Q3 2011 sales. So did they cannibalize PC sales then?
      No.... Intel sold a whopping $9.42 Billion in PC client group. Even if Intel sold a mere $8.055 Billion that quarter, that would mean that iPad sales are not cannibalizing PC sales.

      So for the quarter that coincides with Intel Q3 2012 season, Apple sold 14 million iPad units.
      Intel still sold about $8.633 Billion in PC client group. Relative to when the iPad was not available, that is still 22% higher than the Q3 of 2009, when iPads were not available.

      As Intel stated very recently, even if PC sales remain a constant, they have many other areas of growth, including the smartphones which will be huge starting in 2014 due to LTE introduction, they will show good steady growth in general. Making the current PE of 10 seem extremely cheap and a great bargain for those that invest for the future.
      With a 5 year fabrication lead and huge innovative product roadmap in the pipeline using Intel chips, it looks like the future belongs to Intel.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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