Let us also not forget that the current market is blown UP and could be ready to pop... Not saying that I want it to or that it will within the next couple months, but many stocks are selling for ridiculous values... In the long run you win if you don't mind holding long term...
I would wait for it to settle down after divy. I agree with alex on all the points listed below, there are many trigers for the upside but hard to time those. I see this headed for $20 in the short term, doubt whether it would fall below that due to buy back.
Historically, Intel has sold off after exdividend. It would normally be better to buy a couple weeks after. A couple things to consider that seem different.
Intel has sold off substantially from $29+ to where it is today.
Intel has $5b - $10b left for share repurchase.
200m share short position when 50m to 100m is the normal range.
Announcements pending on CEO, Haswell, phone products at Barcelona, ....
If you plan on buying, a 1/3 to 1/2 position at these prices and a more if it drops after dividend.
You can also buy deep ITM calls at near zero premium.
Just one example:
The July $15 option is $6.30/$6.35 which means your cost is $15 + $6.35 = $21.35 with Intel trading at $21.33. You can exercise the option anytime you want, like just before the May dividend if you want to get it. The deep call means that you control Intel for only $6.35 instead of $21.33 so you have less risk.