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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Mar 11, 2013 12:38 PM Flag

    Qualcomm and Intel Dynasty Scenario at 14nm

    From Charlie at SemiAccurate

    At a different time, but certainly within the past 12 months, Paul Otellini was asked if Intel would be a Foundry for Qualcomm. His reply was that it did not leave a good taste in his mouth. Nevertheless it was not rejected and the door that remained open just a crack is likely to swing open for Qualcomm, the premier mobile silicon supplier in whom both Apple and Samsung are dependent, to win the Mobile Market. The hinge of fate rests in the hands of Andy Bryant, Chairman of Intel, who would need to EOL the Atom and the acquired Infineon baseband group to eliminate the competitive wall that would lead to not just a true Fab filling but would redraw the geopolitical map of the semiconductor industry. With Intel pouring another $13B of CapEx into its expanded 14nm footprint, there are only two possibilities that make sense: Qualcomm and Apple (the latter is now focused on TSMC). A marriage of Qualcomm baseband with Intel 14nm process technology could result in a scenario that would be a remake of Intel's 1990s Pentium Dynasty.

    The trend in the mobile industry for Samsung and Apple is to continue down the path of increased verticality. The Baseband Ecosystem maintains the high ground in tablets and smartphones and soon it will be a standard feature in x86 ultrabooks. Intel bought Infineon’s baseband group to complete the platform needed to compete in the broader mobile market. However, their efforts are still markedly behind that of Qualcomm and others. Bryant can continue the forced march with little to show or abandon the effort that blocks Qualcomm’s entry into the Fabs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • This is a total B S of an article. Atom is already beating anything from arm in both performance and power. Bay Trail will put arm SoC to shame. PO already said by MWC 2014, we will see Intel SoC with integrated Infineon baseband. My guess is the XMM line will be to license out to phone makers who want an alternative to qcom's...XMM and Infineon tech will merge and Intel have a baseband that is just as competive and qcom's...and with their technology process lead, will soon be superior.

    • The reason Intel won't even consider such a proposal is because the larger issue is the x86 architecture itself. Atom is just today's version of low power x86. Eventually the Core processor architecture will become suitable for handheld devices and Intel isn't going to avoid the fastest growing segment of the computer industry just to please Qualcomm.

      This is just too absurd, but not surprising if it comes from SemiAccurate.

    • Surprise Surprise on charlie!
      Full Disclosure: I (Charlie) am Long AAPL, QCOM, ALTR, INTC

    • I asked why Intel and Qualcom wouldn't hook up and have kids 2 months ago and was crucified by Ashraf and the crue. DUH!

    • An article recently mentioned that Apple has hired a team of over 100 ex TI Engineers in Israel to create WiFi and Bluetooth solutions. The timeframe for these solutions is unknown but with $137B in the bank it is easy for Apple to acquire the talent that can create silicon solutions that end up replacing their current suppliers (i.e. Broadcom and Qualcomm). A net reduction of $20 of silicon in every iPhone, iPAD and perhaps Mac Airs could lead to saving the company up to $10B in the era of the Billion Unit+ mobile market that is arriving in the next couple of years. As they say a Billion here, a Billion there and pretty soon your talking real money.

      The aggressiveness of Apple and Samsung in designing the key platform components while elbowing out other Fabless vendors at the Foundry has to be making Qualcomm nervous. The $25B+ in Qualcomm’s bank account leads all mobile players, except Apple. What if the cash is not enough of a cushion to prevent Apple or Samsung from hiring or buying the assets of Qualcomm’s competitors? If you think it unlikely, then one just has to review the staggering opportunity outlined above.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to wallisweaver
      • Under the Andy Bryant Regime, All product groups must now come clean on their true ROI of existing and new products. Atom processors fall way below the line of pulling their weight for a company that by next January will have spent $36B on Capex in the past three years. All of this to drive towards 22nm and 14nm dominance. In contrast to Atom, the Xeon and Ivy Bridge more than any other digital IC, except FPGAs, are delivering on a heavy positive cash flow. However, the dilemma in play is that mobile will be at least an order of magnitude larger than x86 powered PCs and the number of Fabs will matter in the end game.

        The idea that a fast growing market could be on an accelerating path towards consolidation seems at odds with the concept that a rising tide lifts all boats. It took more than 50 years for the American auto industry to consolidate and yet the new mobile industry and the entire supply base may do so in less than 8 years from the time of the first iPhone introduction. It is in Apple and Samsung's interest to accelerate the trend.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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