Of course in the medium to long term I would be extremely worried about Haswell, Bay Trail, Airmont and Intel's 14nm FinFET production coming on line.
But there are some short term possibilities that I would be worried about headed into earnings. My biggest worry would be the big Intel announcement designed to coincide with earnings and Otellini's departure.
It seems fairly likely that Intel would like Otellini's last conference call to be a pleasant and uplifting experience. As such it would also seem likely that Intel would have planned one or more things to ensure that this will happen. Therefore I think the biggest worry for Intel shorts is that Intel has some big announcements that they have held back, just for earnings and just for Otellini. Otellini is a pretty feisty guy and I think he would like an opportunity to put a stick in the eye of some of the dogpuke analysts that have done their level best to make each and every Intel conference call a miserable experience.
So, what are the possibilities? The most obvious would be the Cisco deal. Everyone thinks it's happening but we haven't had any formal announcement. I'd be mildly surprised if we don't get confirmation of the Cisco deal on Tuesday.
The second most obvious possibility would be the foundry deal involving the major mobility player that was mentioned by one of the Intel managers recently. This could be a pretty big deal depending on who it is.
Next up would be some sort of deal with Apple, either foundry or iWatch. Any sort of deal with Apple would be huge and would crush shorts into a 14nm size packet.
And a fairly solid possibility would be a formally announced start date for the web TV project.
Or a combination thereof.
The danger for shorts I think is to assume that this is just another conference call and that Otellini's departure will have no effect on it. Big, huge honking downside for shorts if they are wrong on this assumption.
Perhaps the board would like to weigh in...
wally, get off the pipe man. Whew you got some real bad stuff, you get that on a street corner? and please disclose all your holdings just like you expect of your government officials.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"wally, get off the pipe man. Whew you got some real bad stuff, you get that on a street corner? and please disclose all your holdings just like you expect of your government officials."
[Just to note to the board that this is the standard message for shill drill team. They avoid substantive posts instead preferring a barrage of character assassination and unsupported opinions. Post after post after post, this is the nature of their campaign. It's not by accident that their posts are voluminous and mindless as reflected by multiple IDs. It's by design. ]
It's not necessary to speculate on foundry deals. Those are merely icing on the cake to a company whose product competitiveness and ability to command their markets is probably greater than it ever has been.
If one looks across the server, desktop and laptop markets no one has the capability to challenge Intel's dominance, not now and not even in the distant future.
The contested markets are tablets and smartphones and even here Intel is finally positioned where it needs to be in technology. Benchmarks already show Clovertrail+ equal or better to the best ARM CPU's shipping today. Intel will again raise the bar for premium products with Baytrail for tablets, Haswell for ultrabooks and tablets and Merrifield for smartphones. In each case Intel is positioned to enjoy absolute performance, power efficiency and pricing advantage over ARM-based products. By this year's holiday season it should be common knowledge that the best performing tablets will be those with Intel parts. This should be true for Merrifield-based smartphones too if a 3G phone appears before an LTE phone.