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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Apr 12, 2013 12:38 PM Flag

    Here is What I Would Be Worried About if I Were an Intel Short

    Of course in the medium to long term I would be extremely worried about Haswell, Bay Trail, Airmont and Intel's 14nm FinFET production coming on line.

    But there are some short term possibilities that I would be worried about headed into earnings. My biggest worry would be the big Intel announcement designed to coincide with earnings and Otellini's departure.

    It seems fairly likely that Intel would like Otellini's last conference call to be a pleasant and uplifting experience. As such it would also seem likely that Intel would have planned one or more things to ensure that this will happen. Therefore I think the biggest worry for Intel shorts is that Intel has some big announcements that they have held back, just for earnings and just for Otellini. Otellini is a pretty feisty guy and I think he would like an opportunity to put a stick in the eye of some of the dogpuke analysts that have done their level best to make each and every Intel conference call a miserable experience.

    So, what are the possibilities? The most obvious would be the Cisco deal. Everyone thinks it's happening but we haven't had any formal announcement. I'd be mildly surprised if we don't get confirmation of the Cisco deal on Tuesday.

    The second most obvious possibility would be the foundry deal involving the major mobility player that was mentioned by one of the Intel managers recently. This could be a pretty big deal depending on who it is.

    Next up would be some sort of deal with Apple, either foundry or iWatch. Any sort of deal with Apple would be huge and would crush shorts into a 14nm size packet.

    And a fairly solid possibility would be a formally announced start date for the web TV project.

    Or a combination thereof.

    The danger for shorts I think is to assume that this is just another conference call and that Otellini's departure will have no effect on it. Big, huge honking downside for shorts if they are wrong on this assumption.

    Perhaps the board would like to weigh in...

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