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Intel Corporation Message Board

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  • mikebert mikebert Mar 9, 1998 9:45 AM Flag

    When will show Intel Corp. the earnings?

    There are two kinds of market timing techniques IMO. The strong form aims to predict both what the price will be and when it will be there. Futuregekko practices this form.

    The weak form of market timing is predicting where the current trend in the market appears to be heading. The weak form of market timing doesn't give target dates, just target values. I try to practice the weak form. (I've tried to do what Futuregekko does, but gave it up after two years of failure).

    For example on Feb 3, INTC was in the 84 range and trending upwards. I posted a message in which I opined that INTC was "worth" 91, meaning that the current trend should lead to a point at which INTC would oscillate around a value of 91. I didn't say when this would happen, because I had no idea.

    After INTC rose to the 91 level, I even posted a message after it fell from 95 to 86 in which I likened INTC to a spring, and predicted that it would probably start moving up again (starting another cycle of oscillation around 91).

    Then INTC gave its earnings warning and everything changed. The 91 value is history. It was based on a model in which INTC's earnings were assumed to be flat. We now know that this assumption was wrong. In reality, INTC's earnings were declining even while the stock was rising during February.

    Right now, INTC has dissappointed the market (and me!) and history suggests that INTC stock will go down in the short run. Thus, we would expect the general trend to be down. So how far down might it go? I posted my prediction of 64, but I don't have a clue as to when, if ever, this price should materialize.

35.15-0.25(-0.71%)Aug 24 4:00 PMEDT