I reposted in order to try and get my table to line up:
I've been working on a formula to estimate the bottom when a stock has been beaten down. Here are some recent results:
CHSE . . . . . 15 . . . . . . 15
ORCL . . . . . 17 . . . . . . 18
INTC-before .. 67 . . . . . . 68
UTI . . .. . . 13 . . . . . . 12
RDHS . . . . . 12 . . . . . . 14
SUNW . . . . . 34 . . . . . . 35
TMAR . . . . . 22 . . . . . . 16
INTC-after . . 64 . . . . . . ??
Based on this, I put in a limit order to buy at 65. Anyone else ever work on something like this?
Hysteria?? Expert analysis from the world's leading financial analysts concerning a steep downgrade in Intel's projected earnings is considered hysteria?
As far as bad news already factored in. I don't believe it. Ever hear of the efficient market hypothesis? The strong form is
a bunch of hogwash! What about bad news broadcasted over the weekend including the inventory squeeze at Compaq and the profit
margin squeeze at Coimp USA? Unless you have inside information, this will not be factored in until the market re-opens on Monday
and investors have had time to thoroughly analyze the information. When they do, Intel will likely take another big hit. That's
why I have put in my sell order to my broker.
Uh-oh, now they are on the Intel board too? I feel a hype wave coming, if some big boys see this we could be in for a monster short squeeze... Good thing I'm long!
Here's the information you requested, copied from the latest post on the GTW board:
From the posts it looks like there is a lot of interest here about CHSE a distributor of computer components, monitors,
software, and computers. The product lines are chosen to keep duplication down, and only items with high turnovers are stocked. They have price protection from most suppliers who reimburse them for the inventory in stock at the time of the price cut. Most of the countries they sell in are only now really entering the computer age and are far from saturation unlike the US. At the current rate of
growth they could become the worlds largest computer distributor in only two or three years. This stock has been under
intense short pressure for several months. The amount of short interest has been climbing steadily even as the company has
prospered, keeping the stock price down artificially. With almost 6.5 million shares short at last count and strong support in the 17
dollar range it won?t be long before they will start covering there positions. This could get quite bloody for the shorts as most
of the longs are now aware of the huge short interest. Near the close on Friday there was a large spike in volume that I think
might have been a failed attempt to keep CHSE from having an up day. If CHSE wasn?t shorted so heavily it would probably be in the
thirties by now at least. When the shorts leave CHSE will make impressive gains.
Expanded by a factor of 3-4 in 9 months, depending on how you measure it.
Sound too good to be true?
I expect simular movement. Therefor I am going to be gradualy shifting from puts to calls starting Tuesday near close. Will probably shift ~20% of money per day to average down. I expect to see a rebound before the current month option experation date. We MIGHT see a resumption of downtrend after that.
Intel will drop tomorrow. We already know that. It will trade at 75 or lower by the end of the week. It won't break 95 on fundamentals alone. It will move with the market. Watch out for April earnings report. It will move up.
These things always change up and down week to week, month to month. Upgrades and Downgrades and Upgrades again. People like to see their names in the news and on TV.
Just hold on, it's known that INTC will be doing great in a few months. All this hysteria is just that. Any bad news I believe has already been factored into the price.
If everyone panicked evertime there was a ratings change then God help us we'd all be in the Psych ward!