Interesting snippet from Barron's concerning
Chaplinksy and his recent call on Intel...
the Valley: Earlier this month, Hambrecht & Quist
Robert Chaplinsky made an intriguing
call on Intel. He cut his earnings
the June quarter to 65 cents from 69 cents and warned
microprocessor unit sales would be down 8%-10% from the March
with a 3% drop in average selling prices. Chaplinsky
weaker-than-expected retail PC sales, high industry inventories of
Pentium-based machines and seasonal weakening of European
The comments, coming at a time when Intel's stock had
already been sliding,
chopped another healthy slice
out of the company's market cap. It also got
Street rumor mill churning.
Chaplinsky, as it
happens, came to H&Q about two years ago after a
career at Intel. His last stop there: investor-relations
contends his tenure at Intel makes
him the best-informed analyst on the stock,
certainly has become influential. There's certainly no
has good contacts at Intel. But the
whispering on the Street is that inside Intel,
concern Chaplinsky's call was uncannily accurate-that
perhaps he had
taken advantage of his Intel
connections to get information others on the
not have at their disposal. The talk is that Intel
has begun an
in-house "witch hunt" to find the
leaker, and that the company had been
pre-announcing its earnings for the quarter, but decided to
off when Chaplinsky made his recent
A spokesman for Intel declined to comment on the
danced around the issue. "I'm
pretty comfortable with my work on the
says. "If you read my report, I left a lot of the
granularity out. It
wasn't that detailed. If Intel
speculates that somebody is leaking things to me,
only verifies the accuracy of my
Chaplinsky says he hasn't heard anything from Intel on the
issue, but notes that
he's heard from clients that
"Intel was questioning how come my call was
right." Chaplinsky won't say exactly where his
information comes from, but
notes "there's enough
information in the marketplace to substantiate
conclusion we drew."
Oddly enough, H&Q still rates
Intel a "buy." Chaplinsky, though, advises
touching the stock until the company provides some
second-quarter results. He thinks Intel
has three choices: pre-announce, miss
or pull in some business from the third quarter-and
cautious guidance on the next quarter.
Not great options.
"I have good credibility on
the Street," Chaplinsky says. "I think
assessment is fairly accurate. If some people want to think
it's derived from
nonethical methods, let them
speculate. Now we just have to see if I'm right."
There is a lot of money that is trying to get out
of Japan and will be looking for a new
Most will go into US bonds .. some will go into
In addition the Fed started adding liquidity to our
system Friday. This will also tend to move the market
In addition this is options experation week.
Currently the market is to the south side of the point of
maximum pain. This will also put upward preasure on the
The following week should be hell on earth.
will be better for the entire market if we do go down
Monday. But it looks like we are heading for the blow off
top I talked about several days ago.
thing that could stop the blow off top would be
governmental intervention with the dollar/yen
Good night and good luck.
I worried because I'm long other stocks but, more
importantly, I'm thinking that this crash will be a lot bigger
than 87. If the US market goes, so will the world
economy. That fear outweighs any thoughts about making a
few bucks on Intc. I plan on getting rid of about a
third of my longs.
Any predictions on how far down
Monday's open might be? People will probably be thinking
of Friday's rally and ignore Asia at the beginning,
only to suffer a steep decline as the day goes on.
This week just might be remembered for some time to
come. But let's hope for the best.
You can feel confortable as long as
trades in the range (65-70) and you nibble
at it. But
I don't think it's good idea
to feel too
confortable because once it moves
it will go up there
fast. Alot of liquidity in it.
INTC is everyone's
favorite when in doubt like
Asian contagion and stuff.
Conversely, if it breaks
below 65, it's because of Q2
result and I won't worry
about it. INTC had to
realign their product lines, get
rid of excess
inventories in channel and stuff like
Celeron is basically a knock-out chip to
kill low end
market. AMD and Cyrix don't have high
capacity to produce volume to really hurt
Anyway, stay tuned folks....
Sure Intel will stay up if it goes up. What will
make it go up in the first place? No earnings warning
and meeting or beating consensus for 2Q. And if it
does that, what will make it then go down? Only
negative guidance about 3Q and 2nd half. But why will they
give negative guidance if they meet expectations for
2Q and thus prove wrong all those who expect a lousy
2Q? Remember that this is the 800 lb gorilla in tech
field and a whole lot of bad news is already in stock
and discounted. If I were short I'd be plenty scared,
Boy, did I touch their nerve or somethin. On this
they are good counter indicator. More noise they
more nervous they are.
Bulls and bears will
have their days. But, short pigs will
Good luck shorties.
The stupidity you show to underestimate Intel. Do
you have any industry expertise? What is your
educational background? As I mentioned earlier, I would be
suprised if you even graduated high school. Well, did you,