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  • fingolfen fingolfen Dec 29, 1998 2:05 PM Flag

    AMD bombs Portland Harbor??

    According to the best numbers I've seen (as
    opposed to those who promote AMD as something it isn't),
    the K6-3 and K7 will create parity with Pentium II's
    and Katmai. Note *PARITY* not *BETTER*. I know a lot
    of people have tweaked "apples to apples" benchmarks
    to make the AMD chips look better, but across the
    board Intel still enjoys a 10 to 15% performance
    advantage clock for clock. K6-3 and K-7 running on 133 and
    200MHz bus speeds should create close parity. However,
    with the release of Coppermine, Merced, McKinley, and
    Wilamette/Foster that parity will once again be lost.

    Dresden fab for K7 is going to be running, what? 5000
    wafer starts per week? With Intel's 0.18 micron process
    getting ready to ramp (if it hasn't started already),
    which will go in at least two fabs, Intel will have at
    least double the number of wafer starts per week.
    Intel's processes (especially ones from the Oregon
    development facility) have *always* won the yeild game... So
    if Intel ha 10,000 to 15,000 wafer starts/week of
    0.18 micron chips with higher yeild and demand for
    PC's is flat... AMD won't be able to pick up much
    ground with K7 to make any long term difference.

    Now, what about 0.13 micron? Does AMD have the money
    to actually develop it? Given deep UV stepper costs
    in excess of $10 Million a copy and the fact that
    the current steppers (somewhere in the 240nm range if
    I remember correctly) would have serious difficulty
    patterning a 130 nm line even with a phase shift

    I see serious problems for AMD in the not so
    distant future simply in terms of manufacturability. I
    can forsee a time in 3 or 4 years where AMD may have
    the "greatest chip design in the world," but no
    capacity to develop a process by which to manufacture it.

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    • it ain't even funny! Where in the hell do you
      find anything that supports your belief that the K6-3
      and K7 will only get AMD to parity! The fucking K6-2
      is nearly at parity for Christ sack! The test
      results done ALREADY on just the K6-3 show at least a 12%
      faster chip in any way shape or form to the PII!! The K7
      will absolutely leave the PII in its fucking dust! You
      ARE correct on one point though....and this will save
      Intel's butt in the short term! Intel has it all over AMD
      from a production capability standpoint. However, AMD
      will be capacity constrained ALL of 1999, just as it
      SOLD OUT of ALL K6-2 production in Q4, 1998!!! (in the
      news today asshole!) It will sell everything it can
      make next year and beyond ya scum bucket! AMD won't
      have to advertise to drum up will SELL
      EVERYTHING IT CAN MAKE. If I were holding Intel, I'd
      seriously consider taking my profits RIGHT NOW and dumping
      it all into AMD stock. Don't hold onto a stock just
      because it's been good to you in the past. Everything
      changes, and 1999 will be THE YEAR FOR AMD!! AMD will
      easily be at $40 early in Q1. That equates to INTC
      getting up to about 160 or so.....NOT! So don't give me
      this "at parity" bullshit YA FUCKING TWIT!

    • You've got to be joking, right?

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