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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • Networthdev Networthdev Feb 7, 2012 7:21 AM Flag

    $4 to $5 gas THIS SPRING!!!

    Time to start shopping for your EV or CNG truck!!!

    AMERICANS are sick of the manipulation of gas prices, AND sending our youth in front of bullets and bombs, so a few can CONTINUE to rape the many!!!

    Options are available, and the masses are STARTING to appreciate.


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    • This spring?????

      It has ALREADY been over $4.00 here in Hawaii in past months!

      I've seen a few SMART cars and a couple of LEAFS already!

    • As long as Obama is in the White House, we will continue to get shot at.

      But, from reading through all of the posts under this subject, every time someone says manufacturing costs will increase along with the cost of petroleum, everyone seems to let this slip by or come up with some upsurd jibberish completely unrelated to what will happen to the cost of producing anything that has a petroleum base, or that will increase the various costs of production. Just an observation, but one that cannot just be overlooked by glib comments.

    • Your such a HOBNOBBER!!! Glad you take the time to stop in and regal us with your wisdom, in between your imaginary traveling. :-)

      P.S. You forgot to respond to yourself.

    • Netty, there is no question my posts are so witty, so well-crafted that they SHOULD cost you money to read! Alas, I'm home today between trips and like you poking around optionsXpress and giving you all my wisdom for nuthin'!! You can't beat that for value.

      Except maybe Gas Buddy's recommendations on RBOB futures plays, of course. I'm guessing you didn't pay for these experts, either.

    • I'll take multiple EXPERTS opinions versus a paid bashers crap.

      Sorry it took me so long, but I buy and sell while playing with you. LOL :-)

    • It took you 16 MINUTES to come up with the "paid posting" thing? Dude, you're losing your touch.

      And, no, my typing is actually quite ingenious.

      If you're convinced that retail gasoline will be $4-5/gal this spring, by all means please do take a long May RBOB position. Unlike you, I have only worked in the industry and I can't begin to predict the pricing even though I understand what all those big scary charts and numbers mean in EIA data.

      But you can, so you should take a position and generate wealth from it.

    • P.S. Heres some more fun reading for you that is just the refining "SPIN".

      TITLE: Refinery closings could push gasoline prices back to $4


    • Wow. There are a LOT of oil experts on this blog. I'm guessing all of you predicting oil and distillate pricing are actually making your fortunes on RBOB futures, and TSLA is just recreation, right? Because dorking around with equities is a Chuck E. Cheese game compared to trading petroleum and refined product futures. Didn't know I was in such rarified company...

      Well, if you'd permit me a far less complex analysis than all of your stochastic tools for oil, we know that the overall national average for U.S. gasoline price was about $3.53/gal. The average household spend was $4155. These numbers are neither my opinion nor projections. Ditto the highest monthly average on record from 2008 at $4.11/gal. Not an idea or a guess: reality.

      Now for some projections, but applying actual base 10 numbers and accepted arithmetic: Let's say the annual average for 2011 rises past the PEAK price of 2008 and settles at $4.50/gal for the entire year. That means the average household spending for gasoline will rise to $5300 in 2012, or about $1145 more than the prior year. That's by no means trivial. Moreover, assume that gasoline will somehow remain on the same arithmetic trajectory, with prices rising by a buck a gallon for each of the next three years. This speaks not at all to demand destruction affecting consumption and price, or NGL-based production, or one of many effects that will significantly slow the price increase. Anyhow, this is what Joe USA and family will spend the next three years hence if they do absolutely nothing: no changes in driving habits, no vehicle changes, etc.:

      $5.50/gal 2013 (annual spend $6445)
      $6.50/gal 2014 (annual spend $7590)
      $7.50/gal 2015 (annual spend $8735)

      The total non-discounted spending for fuel for years 2012 through 2015 (one more time: the TOTAL FUEL SPEND for FOUR years for the average household) would be $28,070. Remember that the average household has 1.92 vehicles, so the astoundingly high projected fuel consumption cost per vehicle through 31 Dec 2015 is $14,620. So...

      (1) if Joe's family can replace one car for $14,620 NET -- that is, the NET of selling the 11 year old car (current U.S. auto average age is 10+ years) and financing/purchasing the new one is NO MORE than $14620, and...

      (2) the replacement has a fuel consumption cost of ZERO and NO additional insurance cost, ol' Joe will be ahead.

      Does it sound to you like there will be a rush of buyers for $30-50-70k or higher EVs to "save money"? Yeah, not to me, either - especially as the economy groans under the stress of stratospheric gasoline prices.

      Maybe people will drive less, carpool, take more public transportation, telecommute, or even buy a lower fuel consumption car when the time comes. But if this is the "TSLA goes through the roof" strategy, then you should stick to your ongoing success in oil speculation instead...

    • We will be able let the Chinese pay for all the gas they want, as we ride around in our amazing EV technology machines.

    • Your better off with a Toyota Prius then an EV, as manufacturing EV's will go thru the roof....

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