For what is worth ive been working in Newport Beach for seven years now and drive all over the OC on a daily basis. I see every kinda car you could imagine in this area. I always keep my eyes open. I counted eight CA Plated Telslas today in a four hour period. One was on a test drive with a family in the car on PCH with paper plates. I have never seen that amount in one day before. Im telling you the people are warming up to this car in a big way!! You can drive to San Diego or Hollywood have a blast and get back with plenty to spare..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It does look like California has the critical density of chargers, including SC and 50+Amp/240V chargers. It has service/sales within reach for most of the population. Add the demographics of hi tech, relatively hi income. Per Tesla, almost 40-50% of the sales are in CA. It looks like the beginning of S-Curve growth in sales, at least in CA.
In the South, there is hardly any infrastructure to support BEV. No SC in any of the highways approaching Houston, TX, either coming from Dallas, Austin, South or West Texas. Same for LA, MS, AL or Florida. Only a few chargers good for 20-40 amp, enough to top off. If you want to go from Houston to Dallas, the only way to make it is going at 50 miles/hour in the range mode.
I figure it will take time for Tesla to deploy SC in this area. They have to focus on the demographics, population density, etc. However, the MS makes sense for anybody who lives in one of the big cities. The freeways in Houston are huge with 3 loops, and 3 interstates and the city of 7.5M spread over a huge area. Same for Dallas, etc. Burn a lot of gas going around such cities. Kind like Los Angeles, CA.
Here's a quote that I like to relate to Tesla at this point in time..
In the 1950s, a growing shoe company sent representatives to Africa to see if that region represented a market for their shoes. One representative went down the west coast, and another down the east coast. Both sent messages back to head office. One read, "No business opportunities here, no one wears shoes!" The other representative stated, "Lots of business opportunities here, no one wears shoes!"
Basically some view the lack of EV infrastructure as a negative. To me it means a large portion of the country has yet to experience the EV craze, and massive amounts of growth potential for Tesla.
I live in north county San Diego and have never seen a Tesla Model S until this past week. Within two days I saw six Model S's - one silver, one black, one brown and three white. And when I went to visit the Tesla service center they had at least 18 Model S's waiting to be delivered.
Tesla is on the move.
I live in the SF Bay Area and have been fortunate enough to get down to the Stanford Shopping Mall in Palo Alto a couple of times recently. On both of my recent visits, I have seen multiple Model S sedans in a matter of an hour or less. Now, I realize that this is the heart of TSLA country, but still this is encouraging to see.
As an aside, I read a stat recently that there are now 9 million households in the U.S. with a net worth of $1 million or more, not including their primary residence. I struggle every time I read the concept that there may not be enough of a marketplace for TSLA's "high priced" vehicles. Selling 20,000 Model S sedans would amount to putting one in the driveway of 1 out of every 450 millionaire households in the U.S. alone.
kdp, great "back of the envelope" analysis. I agree that with a very modest degree of market penetration Tesla can be very successful. But I do not think their market penetration will be modest....I think it will be revolutionary. I would not be surprised if they are shipping 200,000 cars per year when their model X and their BMW M3 killer are in production in a couple of years. There are a lot of Apple techies and Google techies here in Cupertino who are ready to push the buy button.
You don't have to be a millionaire to own a 100k car, I would actually guess that a large portion of the nice high end cars (Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, Tesla,) are owned by people who just barely make 6 figures or less. It's not hard to get in one if you manage your expenses well and have a decent job. At least in the Seattle area I've noticed most the owners are the young Microsoft techy people. The fact that its not your usual luxury car will also attract a lot of other people that might not usually buy a Mercedes, BMW, etc
I must say in all my years in the auto business (over 25 years) I have yet to see or hear of a single person ever once move from a payment/lease of a small economy car to a high priced luxury vehicle......NOT ONE!! Then again, you must certainly be oblivious to the norm, right?