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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • mr_kn0wn_it_all mr_kn0wn_it_all Apr 29, 2013 11:26 PM Flag




    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    This topic is deleted.
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    • This is what I wrote on April 29th and I am sticking to it.
      Shorts on this board are just plain dumb!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • ddeboy May 1, 2013 8:52 AM Flag

      Earnings will be under 1.00/sh

    • BAWAWWWWWHAAAAWW. $100 HAHAHA That be nice. I'll more than recover my covering loss I have. In at $51.50 still down $3k but makig it back. I didn't go bankrupt and got stopped out. Phew. This stock goes up tomorrow. BAAAWAWWAAAHHHAAAWAAH. At $100 I will short this overstuffed piggie. Huge Earnigs... get serioius.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Petersen says the company is worth a grand total of $4.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • What is the actual short position on Tesla?

      • 1 Reply to wallstreetmd
      • Wall
        Google " nasdaq short interest tesla "

        short interest 30,695,142 Average daily Volume 4,071,915 Days to cover 7.538257
        It's less than the previous report
        Which was also less than the one before.

        Acording to an article in MarketWatch
        “The short story for Tesla last week shows an increasing number of returns and an easing of demand to short sell the stock"..." short covering saw a large increase which aided any upward moves in the cash market. At the same time the volume of TSLA stock being borrowed slid 3% in the week and the cost of borrowing dropped by almost a third.”

    • ddeboy Apr 30, 2013 11:18 AM Flag

      This is a little too aggressive of assumption. The only thing that really matters is they are on the black side of the accounting sheet. They pay their bills and see black...this is good this early when they only expected to see black 2 years from now. I see high 100s in 2 years time as Tesla continues to prove themselves and expand, but patience. A war would drastically change things or a terrorist attack. You can't plan on those things. The road for this company looks good and plans are being met or exceeded. Management is doing well in meeting orders so backlogs go shorter. I think that article yesterday did a very good job of seeing Tesla's roll in the future - road map. I have my money here and don't plan on moving it any time soon. I would say accumulate this stock cautiously.

      • 3 Replies to ddeboy
      • still feel this way dde? I thought this thread sounded crazy, but today not so much...

      • My estimate is that Tesla earnings estimates for the last quarter(2013Q1) and most important for this quarter (2013Q2), are being underestimated significantly. Q1 was a transition quarter. The company went for manufacturing cars at slow pace and then having to rework them at a hi labor cost to mass production.

        During the transition, the company may have fine tuned their manufacturing and supply chain. Overtime dropped from 70 hours/week + contract labor to just regular employes working with minimal overtime. Simple calculations indicate that overall manufacturing labor was cut by almost by half; while volume more than double from 2,400 in 21012Q4 to 4,750 in the last quarter. That would cut the cost of labor/auto to way less than 50%... more like 70%. The degree of automation in the Tesla plants and the BEV design does allow for these kinds of savings. Engineering costs to optimize the plant may have increased costs to some extent, but will be minimal in Q2.

        The supply chain may have benefitted from the same economies of scale and passed some of the cost savings to Tesla, especially for custom items like glass, gear box, inverter electronics, display and control electronics. Of course, commodity items like Al sheets, etc benefit less with volume increase.

        Now, it all depends on sustaining demand and going beyond the wealthy early adopters to hi end customers. Range is the issue here and customers want amenities like Mercedes, BMW, Audi. Superchargers deployment is important and the car need to include a interior that is more refined. No biggie here and it will be done over time. Company will also add features like smart cruise control, park assistant, etc. A lot of the features suck battery power, add weight and cost$. So it will take time till battery power improves over time. Meanwhile, demand seems good looking at the wait time and the rate of sales.

      • Black is the new red? Huh?

        If the government didn't subsidize this turd would be BK already.

    • Earnings from what? think air?

    • Earnings will be much less important that guidance. My curiosity is why present quarter earnings estimates keep going up (Is an investment firm deliberately attempting to make them miss?) while next quarter estimates and full year have just gone down? Anyone have anything interesting to add?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 4 Replies to regrose58
      • skipaway May 1, 2013 6:09 AM Flag

        That's got my attention,going to reasearc,good question will get back after I look at earnings projections.

      • ddeboy Apr 30, 2013 11:25 AM Flag

        The second swing shift crew is producing more cars-making them build at twice the pace. This makes for about a 15-20% addition to quarterly sales profits-trying to meet backlog. I don't expect much of a profit this time around but I do see more growth acceleration with these extra $s. Perhaps more supercharge stations or taking that money and putting it towards the type III to produce that car earlier. I expect their biggest seller will be the 'Bluestar' model. Until then any profits at all will be highly welcomed.

      • This will be an interesting conference call. In the past, earnings has hardly gotten a mention. All the focus has been on guidance. Finally, earnings will be at the forefront. And now that Elon has leaned not to overstate guidance, it will be interesting to see how he projects earnings for the remainder of the year. Riveting stuff!

      • Regrose
        "Earnings will be much less important that guidance. "
        For the first time Tesla will be running nearly at speed, which means their margins from operations will be very important.
        " My curiosity is why present quarter earnings estimates keep going up (Is an investment firm deliberately attempting to make them miss?)"
        Tesla has a couple of one time events which will help out the bottom line this Q.

        " while next quarter estimates and full year have just gone down?"
        Those one time events will be much smaller to nonexistent.

        Anyone have anything interesting to add?

        The guy you just followed ( mr_kn0wn_it_all) recently posted that Netflix might buy a seismic data company called Global Geophysical Services

        As this is your first comment, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, that you are not connected.

        mr_kn0wn_it_all Apr 26, 2013 12:53 PM



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