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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • micduval micduval Aug 4, 2013 12:20 PM Flag

    8.4% luxery market??

    what about the other 92%?? sounds like more of a downgrde or a joke to me . I guess as usual perception is everything just like TSLA's stock price. Go up some more so i can short higher on Aug 13!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Earnings are out on the 7th.

    • Here's a clue from the article "becoming profitable in Q1"

      That is spin. Tesla admits this was a one time profit and admitted they will lose money in Q2. The stock has been pumped from the beginning.

      • 2 Replies to kbodie77777
      • I see you post a lot about how TSLA is overvalued. I totally agree with you. It is overvalued. It's over its head now. BUT. It's all empty talk. Because it is not a sufficient reason for the stock to crash. As a rule strong growth stocks rarely crash because they are overvalued.

        The standard evaluation logic doesn't work here so you can throw away all these metrics out of the window. Strong momentum stocks trade only on high expectations and the hype surrounding it. Market expects that TSLA will be growing at rates higher than 50%. As long as TSLA keeps over-delivering stellar results it will grow ad infinitum.

        And because expectations are so high (and 50% growth is unsustainable long term) eventually TSLA will stumble, the results will fall below the number the markets expected and the stocks price will have a spectacular fall.

        Will it happen? Yes, it will for sure. When will it happen? One can only guess. But by shorting the stock now you are pretty much gambling and you win only in case market doesn't like the ER. What makes you think the markets won't like the ER? Are you so sure it will miss market's expectations you are making this bet? So far all the data points to the fact that Musk will deliver higher than expected results. Non-GAAP creative accounting tricks will make sure the EPS number is positive.

        I do not see your chances to win as very high. And your chances to lose at least $20 on a share before you get the chance to cover your short after ER are pretty high.

        This stock will keep destroying stupid shorts who do not understand how markets work. While smart shorts are riding the trend up and will short the stock when indicators point that probability is in their favor. Not the other way round.

      • you will be surprised... this still has more room to grow.. GS didn't throw out that "downgrade" for nothing

    • Wonder if you research your stocks as accurately as your spelling??

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