TSLA has not made any profit in the last 11 years, it is a short trip car, tires is a problem, electronics are not dependable
Why bother spend $100,000 with all the problems and for a short distance car?. Valuation is Idiotic and Obsurd-IRRATIONAL EXBURANCE. IF NHTSB issues a recall, it will fall hard and will go to 50 in a heart beat. 10% of the owners are UNHAPPY-with sound, tires sudden electronic failure. 10% unhappiness rating is un heard of in the car industry.
It think it is going to plummet in the next few weeks. I have been reading the Tesla Forum but it is difficult to determine the percent of owners who have issues. Do you have a good sense that it is 10 percent or higher or lower?
It will take more than a few weeks. The quarter has already been set up as another "beat." The highest consensus estimate I can find (Fidelity/Yahoo) is $0,12/share. With 122+ million shares outstanding, that's only about $15 million of non-GAAP earnings. In1Q13, they delivered 4,950 cars and non-GAAP earnings were reported as $15 million. In 2Q!3, the numbers were 5,150 deliveries and $30 million. Many people who try to divine VIN assignments think 3Q13 deliveries will be 6,000 minimum; also analysts such as DB (and Andrea) claim GM has greatly improved. It's a set up. They deliver 20+% more vehicles, with greatly improved GM, yet the "street" predicts "earnings" will decline by 50% from the prior quarter ???
Another reason for pushing your timeframe out is that shares from converted notes (if any) won't be distributed until early November. The earliest a holder can give notice of conversion is 10/1. Three days after that the 20 trading day observation period for pricing the notes begins. The shares/cash are delivered 3 days after the observation period. IMO, even a 4% dilution from note conversions will not have much of an effect on share price. It will take several quarterly reporting cycles for the buy side analysts at the institutions to recognize that cash flow will likely never be sufficient to sustain operations.
Service centers are swamped-you have to wait for a month sometimes to get car fixed-that is unheard of. There are at least 50 cars waiting at one service center-according to forum. My guess according to forum it is 10% and it is too high. My Honda, I can get it fixed on the same day. Why bother to spend $100k and worry about the problems with unreliable car? I might save on gas but I spend more on other things such as replacing tires every year, wasting time at super charge station, wasting time at service center, living with humming noise above 60 mph-tesla service center told at least 5 customers they have to live with it. I do not know how many people are living with it? NHTSB has to investigate and has to recall some with defects. TSLA manufacturing people are working 7 days a week with 12 hour shifts-mandatory-they wear out fast and produce a lousy product. It is going to take a toll on the company sooner tahn later. You will see 4th Quarter orders plummet.