Jan 14th is date NHTSA requires all information by....
...per their 9 page investigation letter sent to Tesla (which interestingly enough wasn't reprinted by the media).
So we know that the investigation will likely not conclude until late Jan or some time in Feb.
Honestly, what are the odds that a Tesla will not be involved in another fire incident where circumstances point to an issue with the batteries or charging? It is simply an inherent issue with the current generation of batteries. Even Boeing who spent billions on R&D couldn't get the battery component right.
The odds of a NHTSA recall imho are above 50-50.
NHTSA clears Tesla we are looking at a 20% gain or so.
A recall and Tesla easily goes back into double digits.