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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

  • bigjohn424 bigjohn424 Feb 5, 2014 11:13 AM Flag


    The math is simple. TESLA is the next apple. They will sell 700000 cars at an avg price of 85k per car in 2018. They do not even have to invest in marketing to do this - it is all about factory output. this will put revenue around 60 billion. This is a rev growth rate of 500%. Let's bring the current P/S of 13 down to 6. This gives us a market cap of 360B and a stock price of 2900 per share. This is why I buy and hold-- and on a down day like this, I buy more. This is why short sellers are idiots!!!!

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    • Let me make sure I have this correct, you are projecting a GREATER growth rate for Telsa than:
      -The iphone from the 9/08 introduction of the iphone 3G to present iphone sales
      -The Ford Model T

      Um, yeah that sounds like a reasonable thesis.

    • I told may friends they gotta buy apple years ago. Their device, the iPhone was a game changer. Then I begged them to buy more when iPad came out. Then it soared to $700. Too many people in apple so I got out. Total bubble.
      But now I feel the same way about Tesla. could be another bubble too but we are at the earliest stages. I haven't told people to buy a stock so much since apple. The story is great. We are looking at the modern day Henry Ford.
      I totally compare this to the next apple and glad to see others see it too.

    • You are almost right on. Actually, if they can manage capacity and the crossover, I think they will do about 800,000 delivered vehicles in 2018 and many will be lower priced - so I would say 70K per car. This is about 56 billion. I had to laugh at the guy who said the entire luxury market was 700K per year... that is what Moscow Russia buys.. =))

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • barbara_boxer_is_brain_dead barbara_boxer_is_brain_dead Feb 5, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

      Neither does Barbara Boxer

    • (( The math is simple. TESLA is the next apple. ))

      Wrong. It is Apple and Google combined. This is a mathematical fact.

      (( They will sell 700000 cars at an avg price of 85k per car in 2018.

      Wrong. Tesla is planning to launch an affordable car. Therefore they will sell 75,000,000 cars at an average price of 185,000. It's simple math.

      (( this will put revenue around 60 billion ))
      Wrong. 75 million cars at 185,000 each is $13.875 trillion. That's simple math.

      (( Let's bring the current P/S of 13 down to 6. ))

      Wrong. Telsa is losing money so it's current P/E is already 6. That's a mathematical fact.

      Tesla's share price will be exactly $9,543,345,768,234,652.12 per share. That's more than all of the money in the world for just one share, but don't worry, if anyone can do this Elon can. He's a genius and he knows his math.

      (( This is why short sellers are idiots!!!! ))

      You finally got one right. Anyone who disagrees with you is an idiot. That is very logical. It is a well balanced approach to investing. Don't listen to people who are selling shares of Tesla just call them idiots - and then buy Tesla shares even though the insiders are selling. Which means they are idiots... and they are running the company .... hmmm...

    • All of your short ignorance is my bliss! The global luxury vehicle market for BMW alone in 2014 is over 2 million cars. I am projecting that TSLA will become 1/3rd the size of the current BMW by 2018. That is not a far stretch. Plus this figure includes TSLA making much more affordable vehicles so I ratcheted down the current $106K per car average down to 85K. I bought 500 more shares at 170 before I wrote my first post and I am glad I did.

      • 1 Reply to bigjohn424
      • I expect:
        500k gen III in 2018 minimum... all upper end models-like the s p85
        100k S sales-China buys about 75% of these.
        50k X sales-China buys 50% of these.
        So my guess is 650k total for 2018. If E can get the battery ramped up, can't do it now- trying to increase the range, he might even sell more. I am putting my guesses on Gen III reservations at 800k for 2018-500k to be delivered in 2018.

    • Your numbers and projections are so stupid they almost don't deserve a comment. But I will make a one-time exception for you. First (you moron) there aren't 700K luxury cars sold on a global scale in any one year. At best - Tech-sla might generate sales of 50K model S/X per year but that will be the ceiling. Tech-sla sales will stagnate at that level and the PE on this stock will fall to reflect the slowing growth. This will put the stock around $ 75. Assuming Tech-sla ever builds and sells a gen 3 car, it will have margins of 15% because they will have a ton of competion in that segment of the EV market. Of course, this is still 3 years down the road. I don't think this pie in the sky valuation will last another 3 years. It might not last another 3 months. But rest assure Little John, us idiots will be here to remind you how smart you were to add to your position at $ 175 when the stock is selling for less than $ 80.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • 700k in 2018? There is a lot of execution risk, but I think it's possible.

      ASP of $85k is not realistic at that volume. It will be at best a mix of high end and affordable models. Try an ASP of $50-60k.

      They do not, for the moment, need to invest in advertising, but they do need to clean up the glitches and stop scrambling quite so much. They'll get a lot of benefit of the doubt as the new kid on the block, but after 12-18 months the "Tesla Grin" will start to fade, and people are going to become a lot less charitable about glitches.

      I have no idea what a 500% revenue growth rate means. if they double sales each year, that's a 100% growth rate, right? (before factoring in declines in ASP)

      I'm bullish on TSLA in the long term, but they do have plenty of opportunities to stumble. Your assumptions are too optimistic. You should need to have to do that to justify the stock price.

      • 2 Replies to lone_ranger
      • Lone_Ranger, since you're so focused on pursuing the truth, I suggest you read the 1/13/14 Automotive News article written by Mark Rechtin, a highly regarded writer for AN. In a nut shell, Rechtin's research indicates Tesla not being able to handle any kind of strong growth, much less sustained profits.

        The writer isn't a nut case or a loon. And if you are a man of your word, you'll read the article and admit things aren't as upbeat as most of you claim.

      • Thanks for challenging me without insulting me. I appreciate your insight. I might ratchet down the per vehicle number and I also pushed the wrong button - it is more like a 280% CAGR and I wanted to say 300%. Still, let's take an ASP of 55k and sales of 500K in 2018. that is still 27.5 billion in sales. Even with a P/S of 3, this is an 82.5 billion market cap (4x of what it is today).

    • Hey Clown .... we'll see how anxious U are to buy when TSLA soars BELOW 100. My guess is you'll be STUNNED soooo STUNNED that you'll be afraid to make any move!!

200.09+0.99(+0.50%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT