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3D Systems Corporation Message Board

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Mar 5, 2013 4:32 PM Flag

    Anyone else see this pattern in the stock--LOOK....

    From last March to September the stock rose from $15 to $30---100%--then corrected 25% over 4 weeks before rising again. From October to February the stock rose from $22 to $47--a little over 100%--before correcting 30% over the next 4 weeks(if you count the drop down to $30 as the end of the correction). Now the stock has come off the bottom at $30 and if the pattern holds true it will rise to at least $60 over the next 5-6 months before the next major correction. There will be some minor ups and downs along the way, but given the revenue and earnings forecast I do expect the pattern to continue--and do not see the price dropping much more from here, if at all, before it starts it's way back up to another 100% gain from the bottom. Downside risk here appears minimal--possibly 10-15% while the upside potential given the trading pattern is a 75-85% return from here.

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    • lot of profit-taking going on, it's the nature of a stock with this kind of growth. people who've grown 100% or more might not want to wait for the next cycle so they jump out, and people with short sight or bad judgement might have gotten scared and jumped ship for a loss.

    • Kinda risky counting on a third base breakout with dodgey earnings and what appears to be a new-found skepticism about these stocks afoot in the land. Worth the risk perhaps if you're in from $22 pre-split, but worth being very cautious for anyone wanting to enter here.

    • mgm2020 I have held DDD almost the entire period throughout you mentioned and I recall those ups and downs. However I would also recall that during those preceding two earnings reports we were lifted by sterling results each time and not this one. If I recall correctly we did better than SSYS too. And finally and for me personally the most important is that was before management pulled this split #$%$ on the same day of an earnings report they knew for sure would disappoint.

      Patterns are good as long as they hold. I also own AAPL (it's my biggest loser along with DDD at the moment) and before this long slide a similar pattern of minor dips were always followed by eager buying in the dips for a bargain so prices always went back up.But that pattern too now longer holds because market sentiment has shifted and is gaining momentum.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to alpha2735
      • I understand the skepticism and I hope your average cost per share of AAPL doesn't have you with too much of a loss, but the markets and stages of developments are quite different. Prior to this year the 3D printing industry was both too small and too young technologically to generate significant revenue. That has changed dramatically over the last 12-18 months and now both DDD and SSYS are forecasting nearly half a BILLION dollars each in revenue for 2013 and still mid double-digit growth rates. The stock prices of both companies did get a little ahead of themselves in the short run, and needed a little pullback to consolidate, base and move up from there. We've had the pullback and the climb back up will begin soon. While not a fledgling industry, these companies and products are still very young and the market will still take years to growe into itself and mature. Apple, unfortunately, has only been making changes and tweaks to it's existing products and needs to come out with something new to shake up the industry, like the Apple TV or this I-watch they're talking about now. With 3D printing companies, going from selling 100 machines to 1000 sure made for some great percentage increases, but now the real money is going to start coming in, and 25-35% growth in a company with sales of $450 million is still quite a big jump--and I think the forecasts are going to be shown to be fairly conservative. The industry is in it's most vital growth phase right now and as the products, technology, and capabilities improve and expand so will sales and revenue, and still dramatically for a while to come. Stocks can't go straight up, but this one won't stay down for long.

    • Your analysis makes sense. I didn't think we would see this sizeable a sell off, but I agree that it will be short lived. GL

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