big selloff this week on no news. And the volume was normal. Yet, a 20% drop. SPWR has been blowing earnings estimates away the past 12 months. No reason to doubt that will continue. $1.50 EPS seems very reasonable for the year. So, its trading at 18X 2014 earnings. With all that is going on, that is way too cheap. Plain and simple.
Too, the very thing spooking markets is actually good news for solar. Russia threatening the Ukraine about raising gas prices is scaring the shi^ out of Europe all over again. Here we go. Alternative Energy anybody (in Europe ?) all over again ! Western Europe and an angry Russia holding their hands on the power spigot is ample reason to load up on SPWR shares now cheaper than they've been in months. It wont last long --
SPWR reports in a couple of weeks ---- a good report will set still more distance between them and their weaker competition (like Yingli) and simply reaffirm what we all know -- that SPWR is the place to be and its stock is poised for a very long uptrend in a growing market filled with just cause to go Solar
All I see coming from the Ukraine russian crises is faster implementation of the Keystone pipe line. This may benefit Solar way down the road but not sure I see any impact any time soon. Am I missing something?
my point is that Europeans need no reminders that they are dependent on Russian gas to light their countries. IF the falling of the Wall in the 90's made them feel easier (it didn't -- look at Germany's AE policy) then fast forward to now. History repeating and Russia holding all the energy cards. It is a scary proposition to them. It is why they embrace alternative energy. IT is why Nuclear is so potent in France. The biggest issue right now is simply that most of these countries are broke. But, as they muddle their way forwards, they are preparing their countries for energy independence one day at very high prices -- they know it and they do it willingly. The fact that is it now becoming actually economically viable is a testament to good foresight and good luck.
But staying hostage to their neighbors to the East is simply not an option --- Europe, like Japan, will be a good long term marketplace for high end solar manufacturers.
Well let's see ... YGE warned yesterday, and TSL warned just now after the bell.
I guess the question is, given the activity in SPWR , will they warn before earnings as well , or are we just seeing collateral damage in a very weak overall tech market?
Either way, CSIQ last quarter and now YGE and TSL warning for this quarter ... the sector will be fighting an up hill battle until we get more news like that which came from FSLR, guiding higher in the years to come (amazed that their visibility extends that far).
For Chinese solar, I prefer JASO.
Look at the stats, JASO has the best cash & debt ratio.
It also has one of the better solar product.
It had last positive Q.
Market valuation is low compared to its revenue.
SPWR has the broadest market spectrum - manufacture, utility scale, residential, in US, Japan, China, S America, S Africa, Australia, middle east.
I hear you, and this week created plenty of room for doubt. But, YGE and TSL could well be burdened under the weight of stronger players like SPWR and FSLR. CSIQ I view as a long term player. But hardly uncommon coming from the abyss of 2 years ago to have some of the still marginal suppliers like TSL, YGE, JASO, etc suffering at the hands of the (now) market leaders. Time and class has established leadership and I don't believe the rank & file results now are a true reflection of what is going on industry wide. The Market leaders (like FSLR) tell the story more correctly -- so SPWR's results are going to be VERY important to establish ground here ---- I am long, really long, SPWR, and certainly biased here, but I ask have asked myself many times why the marketplace would be buying products from many of the 'other' panel makers out there when SPWR panels so outclass the rest --- perhaps we'll get those clues in a couple weeks