Since Jan. 3, VDE has gone up almost 6% (.5.9%), while the S&P has gone up only 3.3%. Outperforming the S&P has been characteristic of VDE breakouts. Also, VDE crossed its 200 day moving average on Dec. 5, another bullish sign. Furthermore, VDE has lagged the performance of the S&P for the past year or so, something that has been eventually corrected in the past. Finally, I sold some of my VDE when it hit 109, which doesn't mean a damn thing except that I seem to have a knack for lightening up on a stock just before it takes off. Too little patience.
On the other hand, oil continues to pile up at Cushing, OK, which is usually bearish for oil stocks. Don't prices go down when supply goes up? Thats 101 Economics.
In conclusion, I have no idea where VDE is going. Neither does anyone else. My guess is up, and I have a long history of being right about half of the time. What do you think, and why?