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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • ioc_critic ioc_critic Jan 23, 2013 1:04 PM Flag

    After 3 loyal years to IOC, I think I'm done with this stock.

    Nothing will ever happen, management stinks...I might cut my losses(15K) and move on.
    GATOR, TREE, jft310 and all others associated with SHU are nothing but liars who pumped up this baby and got me hooked.

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    • IOC_Critic, The press statement that IOC released yesterday tells us that there will be a sale of Elk/Antelope gas field by 2/28/13. It further stated that ioc's board of directors will make a decision in the first week of March, 2013 to select a winner. It's over. This is a clear unambiguous statement telling us that IOC is confident there will be a sale at a price that will make us happy. I also have been a stock holder for years. I purchased more yesterday. If you still remain concerned then sell calls at a price higher than today's price. You will receive a significant premium that should make you comfortable holding your stock.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • By the way, ioc_critic. I certainly hope that if you actually did decide to bail, you did not do so until after the 10% run up. It is always bad to panic on a bad day.

      I certainly understand your frustration, but I for one, learned my lesson about the pump crowd a long time ago. And in fact, early on, believing Kencooksam did cost me some serious money. But when the stock made it to $99, my greater judgment (discounting the pumps entirely), took over and I decided to risk it that the stock would end up higher after deals. So it is now only my past belief in management that could cost me big money. That trust has now been severally shaken, but I am still here, so I guess that means I fall with those who believe the resource will win out over the management's spotty record. They seem to be excellent at exploration/safety, which are the most critical. I'm staying at least until summer.

      • 1 Reply to iocwhatmew5
      • davidyab Jan 25, 2013 11:28 AM Flag

        Funny how the daily news flow and pps fluctuations generate such response from all these investing neophytes. You buy and hold this for the deal, no other reason. If you start listening to all these MB idiots and trade as a result, you'll be F'ed in no time.

        Best advice for IOC shareholders is to TURN OFF YOUR COMPUTER!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • "Eric.. *WHAT* resources? I keep hearing this from longs and now even from a skeptic. I have not seen ANY evidence that these guys have ONE drop of oil gas. If you have the actual source, I would love to know. I also found the forward statement to their press release incredibly revealing."

      The company has natural gas and natural gas liquid resources. The resource is not classified as reserves because of several contingencies, most notably IMHO the "determination of economic viability", and the current lack of any way to get the gas to market. The data including seismics, well logs, etc have been evaluated by GLJ - a top notch independent resource evaluator. The report is filed on SEDAR. In a nutshell GLJ's conclusion is that the gas is technically recoverable with current technology but doesn't have enough data to conclude that it is economically feasible. But nor have they determined it uneconomic.

      These are facts. Apart from these facts there are varying opinions on how adequate the testing has been to date. The company has never run long term production tests and they explanations as to why not are confusing:

      1) The company has told several parties that it applied for a permit to run extended tests
      2) At least one party was told by the (wacko) govt in PNG that no application was made
      3) The CEO told Upstream that such testing would be "stupid"
      4) No tout will attempt to reconcile 1) and 3) above even if dismissing #2
      5) The company has done little to attempt to clear this up.

      All of the above is verifiable.

      Thus the arguments continue. I for one have talked to many people about the resource including petroleum geologists. Here are my basic conclusions:

      1 The gas is there
      2 The quantity is large
      3 The recoverable resource may be materially smaller or larger than GLJ estimates but is still large
      4 The field is very complex - making assessments more difficult and the development plans very complicated
      5 More testing is better than less testing, especially a new field in a new basin, and when many $billions must be invested
      6 a LT production test would use a miniscule fraction of the resource
      7 a communication test (measuring pressure at one well while flowing another) would provide valuable information
      8 The more de-risked a resource is the higher the price commanded.
      9 Perhaps IOC firmly believes no additional testing is needed, or perhaps they don't want to risk it as if there's a problem it's a $5 stock (IMHO)

      There is enough info to view E/A as valuable and encouraging. Just perhaps not encouraging enough to underpin the market cap or to attract a satisfactory price - this would seem to fit the fact that the I banking process that started in 2011 still hasn't concluded and now "bids" are "due" in Feb 2013.

      Hence I am short but have calls as a hedge. For me this is a "balance of probabilities" and instinct short vs a "beyond a reasonable doubt" short. And a very small chunk of my portfolio.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to bonkthegrups
      • Excellent post bonk. The focus on the testing serves well to explain part of the heart of your argument. It just seems to me that it has one flaw.
        "6 a LT production test would use a miniscule fraction of the resource
        7 a communication test (measuring pressure at one well while flowing another) would provide valuable information "
        If indeed such additional testing were critical to making a deal, I am sure the super-majors would insist on doing it. We, of course do not know if they have, but it is likely we will find out over the next few months. There has been plenty of time for such tests to be run since the SM became involved, and since they have not been announced, I assume that the access to the data room has proven sufficient for them to bid. Also, since you say you have talked to about this test as being important, I am curious, since you say " I for one have talked to many people about the resource including petroleum geologists.", what do they say about the percentage of such tests that actually turn our positive on average? Obviously, the percent probability of such a test coming out positive would vary depending upon the other data available; clearly Phil would say it is so close to 100% in this case, that it is unnecessary. What is more important is whether the SM's agree with him. Nonetheless the average % would be informative.

      • Erich, you ask: "So, if it is 70% management "incompetence", what does that mean vis a vis the bids? The terms of those bids?"
        That they are likely not as good and have taken much longer than they might have.
        You also ask/state: "Who is going to hand gazillions of cash over to a company clearly so poorly managed? Who would let those executives have control over the project? Etc? I have always asserted that no SM would ever hand over significant cash up front to IOC and let them control the project in any way."
        Some entity might pay more cash than otherwise precisely in order to wrest control from IOC. But it doesn't matter to me who has control over EA after the deal and I'm not so interested in contesting fantasies of the more rabid pumpers. All that matters is that the deal leads to a higher pps than now, which seems to me very very likely.

    • bye....

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It's dropping like a triple Mulacek off the high dive...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy


    • "GATOR, TREE, jft310 and all others associated with SHU are nothing but liars who pumped up this baby and got me hooked."

      Too bad there was nobody around to highlight the risks and offer a different perspective.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

49.46+0.16(+0.32%)Jul 29 4:02 PMEDT