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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • pickboone pickboone Mar 15, 2013 12:44 PM Flag

    Why I believe a winning bid was chosen

    There has been pervasive chatter that the BOD meeting was held last weekend, and my guess is that it would have extended into this week if there weren't a clear winner that was agreed upon by the Board. I don't believe that it extended into this week.

    Of course, the company would then likely have to sign a final contract with the winning partner and inform the government prior to releasing the information publicly. I believe the company was aware of these steps when it guided to meeting to choose a partner in March, so I think that the outcome, which I expect will be transformationally positive, could be announced literally any day in the next 2 weeks.

    It's amazing that any investor could be losing patience now that there are "several bids" in hand. The stock is a gift here at essentially the same price at which the announcement of receipt of bids occurred.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • They had a bird in hand back in January! Anybody with half a brain knows that!

      ya, baby!

    • pickboone, i think after this lifetime of work for all the parties inside ioc, they would not solicit supermajors without a clause allowing for a best and final. I would guess, and I think its a reasonable guess, they employed confidentiality statements in the bid package and right up front, warned all bidders there could be a second round in the form of best and finals. If two or more supermajor bids came in, each meeting the png requirements, then logic would dictate the bidders would be given 3 days to one week, to sharpen their offer while holding to their offer if they did not wish to sharpen it. Any good lawyer would see to it that this was part of the initial package so no one balks or retracts This is it. The whole future of the company depends upon this process. I have to believe they got it right.

    • It seems to me that you are now simultaneously arguing for (2) mutually exclusive scenarios.

      1. The winning bid was already chosen and can be announced any day.
      2. The Prime Minister is meeting with heads of state of several of the bidding companies to negotiate or discuss potential terms and the bid can be announced after that process.

      Unless you think that China Thailand and Japan are all simultaneously involved in the same deal, you are now all over the map.

      You can't have it both ways.

      Do you think a bid was chosen or is O'Neil discussing terms with several potential bidders?


    • Japan, China, Thailand all happening now....very interesting!

      ya, baby!

    • On top

    • From IOC, all we know is that acceptable bids from government approved bidders have been received and presented by the ib's to IOC. I think that is all we know. There may be 2 or more bids that are so close or present many variables that need to be reviewed in order to determine the best route to take. I do not agree that this is a decision that is made in afew days. It happens when it happens.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Pick, makes total sense. At first company said they're meeting in the first week of March. Afterwards, they gave themselves more time for contract signing, PNG govt notification, etc. by changing it to sometime in March. The shorts are trapped and the bottom of the hour glass will be full at any moment. We're still in March, and only half way through!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • "It's amazing that any investor could be losing patience now that there are "several bids" in hand. The stock is a gift here at essentially the same price at which the announcement of receipt of bids occurred."

      Yea, it's amazing. Get rich quick, all the smart guys are doing it..

      I'm imagining you making this statement with a plastic megaphone in hand,
      standing inside a pole-propped canopy,
      with lots of big fuzzy stuffed antelopes, elks, and triceratops on the wall behind you.
      Nice picture.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • The bids have been in for 15 days. That is long enough to evaluate them and pick one. We do not "know" that the Board met on the 9th and 10th, but that makes sense--the original release said they would be meeting "the week of March 4" and that statement has never been contradicted. There is total silence about the bids, no names, no terms, no numbers. Just great security. I don't believe this total silence would be possible if the winning bidder and/or the PNG government knew who and how much. I have the impression that the PNG gov't , at least, leaks like a sieve. Moreover, if a winner has been picked and notified, isn't that a material evant that would have to be announced by IOC or the winner? I am left believing that the Board may know, but as yet, or until very recently, neither PNG nor the winner know who or how much.

      So, what is going on? Is IOC very quietly shopping the bid around for a better offer? Is the Board divided on which bid to accept? Are there conditions that must be satisfied before announcing the winner? IOC certainly knows that over time, information will leak. I assume they are smart enough to want to control the release of the information on the bids themselves. So, again, what is going on?

      • 1 Reply to danross70
      • Interesting back and forth here. Various possibilities for the exact status and direction now, but one thing I feel sure of is that they are progressing with a sense of determination to get it done and done right toward a selection and sell down agreement with one or more first class partners.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I agree with pickboone !I think he is right.Odds hes right over 95%.

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