As the bidding and selection process draws to a close, the leakage has picked up steam in the past couple of weeks with credible reporters indicating at least 3 top supermajors involvement in the battle for PRL 15. The confirmation of strong interest in IOC's assets and a process involving bidders with an aggregate of nearly $1 trillion in market cap means that time is now on IOC's side. As inciderr so eloquently stated in his last post, "Stronger transaction resulting from extending bid rounds". What aspect of inciderr's post is so surprising? Platts just confirmed XOM, TOT and RDS's strong interest in IOC's project, so it it really surprising that "three bidders say 'we will not be outbid'"? I don't know who inciderr is or where he attains his information, but almost everything in his latest post can essentially be pieced together by all of the leakage that has been emitted to publications like Platts, Upstreamonline and PNGIndustryNews in the past few weeks. Clearly, things are going much better than anyone could have hoped for. The PM's media release on TOT's recent visit and the PNG government's acceptance of TOT's aspirations to get bigger in the country's upstream assets may mean that the deal is ready to be signed and the majors are getting final clearance from PNG before committing billions of dollars to IOC's project.
The time is right - the majors are increasingly focused on low cost wet natural gas for LNG as they move away from expensive CBM in Australia, global markets are soaring, excess cash is plentiful for the supermajors, GCA seems to have confirmed GLJ's higher resource estimates based on what was conveyed in IOC's latest presentation, Petromin's gone, and Duma and O'Neill want a deal that's best for IOC and PNG. With the short case having dwindled down to arbitrary hopes that no further update will be provided on or before the conference call next week, I'm very comfortably long.
Strange, I am comfortably numb after reading your post. By the way, when you say "drawing to a close", does this mean "imminent", or "ready for the prom" or what? When you say that "clearly things are going much better than anyone could have hoped for", what are you referring to? Investors who like to underperform passive indices over hundreds of weeks? I imagine if you bought shares at $75 in the December 2009 secondary, I wonder if they were hoping that the stock would be at $77 in May of 2013? I imagine they, too, are comfortably numb...or long. BTW, I just skyped with Inciderr and they told me this: "Error. Delays. Byker problem. JKM suing. War room locked. Key lost.".
pick-As normal we can see anyone who reads the IOC related stories can see exactly what you post and inciderr whoever that may be is spot on. He did focus on an overview which many may not have picked up on and thus his posts are quite valuable. The information is public for all to see most likely leaked by the IBers.
Shell continues to do things that don't reflect well on them and who would be surprised by that statement??