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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • valuesleuth valuesleuth May 9, 2013 10:42 AM Flag

    Absent a final deal announcement pre-CC, expectations WAY TOO HIGH

    From reading many recent posts, it appears the general consensus among many longs is that something needs to be said on the CC about the status of SD/Operator/Farm-out deal or deals.

    Quite a few believe that something material will be said on the subject, and quite a few appear to believe that if something material is NOT said, the stock will crater thereafter, with the shorts taking advantage.

    Well, folks, based on past experience with IOC, and the constant mantra emitted by IOC management since the CAs were executed, DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP -- unless, of course, the final deal announcement is made BEFORE the CC.

    Statements like "shareholders deserve it" have been shown to carry no sway with IOC leadership.

    The substitution of Galen Byker for Phil Mulacek is really no change at all with respect to communication policy -- and Byker will prove that. In fact, it is quite likely he will be less informed than Phil ever was, and will demonstrate that. It is also quite likely that some other executives will be constrained in their comments by Phil's departure and the pendancy of a new CEO, so even less than normal will be revealed.

    I'm a bull on IOC's going forward prospects, as I believe in the RESOURCE. However, having said that, it is less clear than ever where this thing is now going and I have very little confidence we'll get any illumination on the subject until a final deal is announced -- whenever the PNG government gets its act together.

    Yes, the PNG government. They are OBVIOUSLY IN CHARGE of where this all goes.

    Connect the dots.


    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I agree that we may hear nothing on the deal/selldown, but I am very confident that the process and results will be better than most expect. We will find out soon.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Value Sleuth you have been reported to the SEC. Collusion is illegal. Knock Knock SEC calling VS.

    • The point where I disagree with you is the CEO.
      I suspect we may have an announcement of new CEO Monday and that this is a 'no brainer" on the part of IOC. New CEO will be from within IOC, the guy who actually has been in charge of negotiations the last 9 months ( think accountant). Thus he is most obvious candidate and the most knowledgeable. AND, so far, he doesn't have the credibility issues that Phil had.
      Besides, after s/d of E/A what is there really left to manage at IOC? A rocket scientist will not be required. I don't buy, for a minute, that CEO search has been ongoing for months.
      Tricertops development will be along same guidelines/model mandated by Gov't.
      I am fairly optimistic ( call me silly ) that Monday/Tuesday we'll have much better communication from IOC than what we've had in the past. Remember the last cc? What a bumbling disaster that was.
      If there is a repeat of such incompetence at Tuesday's cc, then we're all in trouble.
      There is NO EXCUSE for an incompetent cc on Tuesday. The lawyers and accountants and IB'ers will have had plenty of time to prep IOC mgm't. for this call.

      Another point: IOC mgm't is aware of concerns posited on these message boards ( again, call me silly) but I have noticed in the past that issues raised on the boards were addressed in cc's.

    • Comical. The stock has dropped 9 points in just over a week while the raging bull market persists, and now you're warning that expectations are too high heading into next week's conference call? The market does not anticipate a substantive update, and if there's any incremental transparency on deal progress the stock is poised to resume the ascent that abruptly ended last week.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to pickboone
      • pick,

        I didn't say a single word about "the market", did I?

        I was speaking of the expectations of quite a few posters.

        Before you go mouthing off with your "comical" comments, you might want to digest what posters actually say.

        "Incremental transparency". Now that's a new one you can surely bank on from Phil's partner, who actually might prove to be even LESS transparent than Phil.


        Sentiment: Buy

      • I totally and utterly disagree with you...and Rugby. What the heck do you mean by "incremental transparency"? That sounds like some semantical bunk. After all, they have said virtually nothing. Nada. So "incremental" could mean just about anything. And, in fact, if they say something like "we have received bids, as we previously indicated, and continue to negotiate with parties submitting bids", that is arguably "incremental", but says about jack squat. And I think the stock trades lower on this sort of gobbly#$%$. In fact, I am predicting this is precisely the sort of information we get. You can bank on the fact that IOC will not provide specifics because of CAs, which has always been their cover. Anyhow, this all depends on specifically what is said, and what details are provided. "Incremental transparency" is not the standard here. IMO.

      • Dropped as much as $10! from its recent high. The market has lowered its expectations re the CC, I agree. If there is any incremental mention regarding the process, the stock will make a new high. As a matter of fact, I think the stock will trade $2-3 higher from here into the CC next week, as I believe the market has overshot.

    • VS
      We think alike. Very good points above ESPECIALLY : "Yes, the PNG government. They are OBVIOUSLY IN CHARGE of where this all goes"
      This is so critical to understand.
      I posted my conclusion on this subject yesterday ( which Tate vehemently protested):
      "Who knows the final outcome but it is my belief PNG is now in control of IOC's outcome, not IOC.
      We have Phil to thank for his three years of bumbling and delays.
      Think Png isn't/wasn't frustrated with IOC's lack of progress?
      IMO, IOC knows which offer THEY prefer but decision on final deal will be MANDATED by PNG gov't.
      IMO this will not be an arms length transaction but will be crafted by PNG gov't and forced down our throats.
      Think PNG gov't cares about us IOC shareholders?
      Hell no!!
      IMO, PNG gov't didn't demand option for additional 27.5% ownership ( thus giving them effective control of 50% of E/A) for any reason other than they wanted to wrest control over development of E/A control from IOC.
      Again, IMO, Phil was an obstacle, the gov't was fed up with him and thus wrested control away from IOC via the option for an additional 27.5

      Sentiment: Buy

    • well, the stock has lost nine bucks in two weeks. that doesn't imply sky-high mkt expectations.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • i'm not at all suprised by this "action". Its pretty typical for IOC. Never buy calls, call buyers always take the pipe on IOC. Never sell puts until its heavily oversold and washed out, which is a high volume selloff and oversold conditions, neither of which we have seen yet on this latest downdraft.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • True. More than likely we wont get much tuesday. If thats the case, next week is OE, so I expect heavy selling pressure next week absent news. I also dont think "we are almost done with the deal", or "its in PNG govts hands" will help PPS at all. IOC has a habit of selling off after CCs anyway. Wonder how those extra shares and calls Ken was touting he bought at 80 a few weeks ago are sitting.

    • yeah, they are in a blackout, except what they said to a select few back at 83...that does not count because there are supermuppetts among the poor poor shus.

    • wedodiscussionswedontdodeals wedodiscussionswedontdodeals May 9, 2013 10:49 AM Flag

      Not bad VS, not bad, there may be some hope for you after all, just one minor point,,, your post will have zero effect on the longs who disagree with you, hope you realize that before you post, it's just how our brains work, you still need to take more steps, based on your post you should have at least sold some planning to buy back lower after the CC

      did you?

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