Exxon talked about its advancing deal will InterOil multiple times on its conference call. Many shareholders aren't accustomed to the "new InterOil", which is more protective over sensitive information and leaks and is more focused on execution than on promoting its stock. Just two and a half months ago, almost the entire world expected a deal will Shell to be announced in the coming weeks when InterOil unexpectedly sprung the news of exclusive negotiations with Exxon on the market; there wasn't a single leak prior to the announcement that I'm aware of. Does anyone suspect that a deal announcement may occur much sooner and more unexpectedly than the market and frustrated longs are now anticipating?
This was released in a Bloomberg article on July 12: "“It’s moving along nicely,” said Michael Hession, the former Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL) executive named yesterday as InterOil’s chief executive officer. “I’m not disturbed in any way, shape or form. I’d emphasize that Exxon and this negotiation are going to be my number one priority.”
It will be interesting to see where the negotiations stand today, one month since it was "moving along nicely" and more than a week since Exxon affirmed this on its call. I would guess that while expectations are quite low right now, the reality is that things must be very far along and close to the finish line.
Have a great weekend.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"It’s moving along nicely” I consider this comment to be pretty non-informative. What is he supposed to say? "We are hitting a bunch of small non-anticipated bumps" or "Even I didn't have a clue how long this #$%$ thing would take? or Damn, what did you expect?....lol. Truth is his comment was a masterful non-infomative way of saying we have not yet encountered any deal killing glitches.
Given the overwhelming "thumbs ups" you and the rest of the gang get, I would suggest ALL believe a deal will be announced. The problem is that, it's been 7 years! I am sure "some" kind of the deal will be announced. The devil is in the details, my long friends.
Thanks for the post. It's nice to have an optimist posting to counter all of the short hacks. You do remind me a lot of Ken but with the ability to spell and use grammar. I will say that it's not possible for anyone to "suspect that a deal announcement may occur much sooner and more unexpectedly than the market and frustrated longs are now anticipating" Every long is waiting for this deal to be announced and when it does happen no one can have considered it to be "soon" unless you've just recently purchased the stock. Everyone is expecting this to happen and "Soon" passed a long time ago. While It's good to know that the major deal points have been agreed upon and your statement that things " must be very far along" is likely accurate it's debatable whether we're "close to the finish line". Every day that passes does bring us closer to the announcement but whether that is on Tuesday or six months from now, who knows? The announcement will probably happen when everyone's frustration level is at a high and that time may be "soon" :)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Pick....Do you have ANY concept of how many times "immanent" or "close" or some comparable term has been used inappropriately over the YEARS with IOC and always followed by disappointment at timing? I like your positive attitude, but you have got to try a different angle. We have no idea how long this will take. That is obvious to anyone who has been around for over a month or two.
This is all well and good, but I am left with the strong view that management should have lowered some of the past expectations that a deal was imminent. That is no spilt milk, but I expect some guidance and/or explanation. If this may take three more months, then management could say so. "Close" or "soon" just do not get the job done any more.
Agreed, but the delayed timing relative to expectations is why the stock trades for $86 rather than $130 - $200 IMO. Now you've got fatigued shareholders, short interest near its highest levels ever, Exxon announcing last week that negotiations are advancing, InterOil's new CEO's comments last month that the negotiations were progressing well, and maybe most importantly, Sunday's statement by O'Neill that "Resource development is going quite well, particularly in petroleum and gas, and I believe current negotiations between Interoil and PNG LNG plus others will give a very strong possibility of a five-train LNG project." One would have to think that O'Neill is kept apprised of the progress and hence that the deal is close enough to closing in order for him to have made that statement.
Sentiment: Strong Buy