Whenever this stock runs (and in this case back to just a dollar) we have to listen to the dreamers and chartists and it is just vapid. I hope this thing goes to $10.00 so I can retire but I am realistic in hoping for $2.00 by year end. I know we just had some insiders buy and we rallied to .99 cents but lets keep the conversation somewhat realistic.
This is and remains an high risk stock..... otherwise, wouldn't be listed on Nasdaq.
There are confirmed (very) positive points:
- delisting... no issue (must stay 1 day above the $, right now)
- insiders just spent 300K$ @ 0.9
- confirmed production @ 70MW by may 1st. Means they delivered @ avg production of 60MW (yearly) for 6 weeks
- fat backlog orders book (400Mil$)
- very differentiated production.... more segment with Versa Power
- growing orders, especially in USA... Dominion..... now, an hospital..
- MW production did increase strongly from 2010
- 2012 was first year of gross profits
........then of course.... 2 "risky" points:
* first of all, we do have a big orders backlog book (400 Mil$ in stacks+services) but it's also true that @70/90MW year production, we have to "feed the beast" strongly. So @ 56 MW, we have orders until 2016.... but @ 70/90MW, we'll have orders until early 2015. We have time.... but orders are needed
** in last CC, they said we have enough cash for 12 months..... it means, cash won't be Zero.... but the cash flow is high.... So @ 50/60Mil$, they have to raise something. Positive thing, they said they'll look also for non diluitive chance... such debt.
"we may also pursue
raising capital through a combination of; (i) equity or strategic
investments, (ii) debt financing (with improving operating results
as the business grows, the Company expects to have access to the
debt markets to finance capital expansion) and (iii) potential local
or state Government loans or grants in return for manufacturing
Item * is all that matter at this point. It's all about that...... revenues, margins, breakeven, profits We're seeing good signs.
Item ** is not total evil when a Company runs @ four cilynders.
I understand your feelings, and don't blame you in any way for thinking like this. I have only come in at 3500 shares with average of $1.15, so anyone who has been through the times where share prices were obviously much higher and at much higher stakes most certainly will have a different view towards excitement. BUT, I have watched it for a long time, and know that there are certain momentum changes in life that are unavoidable. One of those is a switch (though only partially now, but stronger in the future) away from fossil fuels minus countries unable to afford to do so. Europe has been much more aggressive, as have parts of Asia with finding alternative energy sources than the United States may ever be...and that always comes down to the almighty dollar and who has the majority of them. Americans think about how to make more/keep more of their money, even at the expense of our planet, while others like the Europeans reach out their arms towards what makes more sense in the long run. Not bashing us Americans, just being honest. We do the same with our healthcare systems, our energy policies, and our governmental fiscal spending. Everything is a$# backwards, because we are held hostage to large corporations and their lobbyists. If our congressmen and women REALLY cared about energy independence while preserving our land for future generations, and fiscal responsibility that doesn't put our children in debt beyond their grandchildrens' time, they would have raised this type of energy to a higher level of importance and hit the reset button on their own benefits and become the civil servants their forefathers originally set out to be...without the lifelong retirement, insane amount of perks, and self raises.
To make a short story long, I am excited because I can see something in motion that eventually cannot be stopped. I'm not unrealistic about the potential of FCEL, but do see how fuel cell technology is going to be a prominent part of our future.