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Selective Insurance Group Inc. Message Board

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  • Eggplant101 Eggplant101 Jul 16, 2007 1:17 PM Flag

    SHORTS will get a beating here

    I don't know, it seems that shorts have done well recently in this name. What is the catalyst that gets the stock up from here?

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    • If you're patient and can wait, there's a Guru on this Board who is analyzing the situation and delving into "cause and effect" as well as prognosticating on a prescriptive remedy for Sigi's comeback.

      We'll all learn something, I'm sure.

    • Eggplant, I told you to be patient and the Guru would give you some help. Here it is:

      Wait for the earnings report.
      Watch our for the "headwinds", soft cycle, large cap preferences, strength of personal lines carriers.
      Turnover of large holders (he was theorizing this might happen)
      Investors are pre-occupied with the "macro" environment.
      (That's really a good one, eggplant!!

      Suddenly, someone is realizing that maybe Sigi's pre-occupation and reliance on only small to medium commercial lines may be hurting them. I never heard that before from the Guru who constantly told us how great SIGI's tech skills were and that they are the preferred regional carrier. Tech skills are fine until you're faced with dollar premium competition. Then see what helps the agent- - -, the ability to compete and make money or those superior technical skills!

      Be encouraged also, eggplant, there are those accumulating SIGI at these levels. Note the terrific effect that's having on its market price.

      Guru, you're still a master- - -at blah, blah, circumlocution!

      • 1 Reply to soljls
      • Sigi, like many other business entities must finally admit to the realities of life (business life, which is):

        No dough: No go.

        In the way of a little background�..The Business world had already conned the Fed into �forcing down� interest rates.. mainly at the expense of small investors, the retired, and the value of the dollar. 1.

        The obvious reason for this Fed Action was to make it easier for the business community to pay off its staggering loans and to make it much easier to finance new ones.

        Somewhere during the process that very false idea that people will part with their cash on some vague future promise was formed and fostered by the Business people and their Banks� This �Genie like� increase in stockholder value was dashed to oblivion during the recent stock value crash starting around the year 2000.

        Sad to say that Sigi is becoming a prime example of the above. Sure, it was nice to hoard stockholder earnings in some vague account on the Balance sheet (everyone likes to see Billions), but the proven theory �if the money ain�t in the poc (your pocket), you ain�t got it� proved true once again.

        The public (many of them badly bruised when the �Stock bubble burst� c the year 2000) now want what they always had a right to�. An annual return on their money as a reason for investing it.


        PS: There is a small dark cloud starting to form on the horizon in my mind that �maybe in defense of current management. They no longer can pay out this expected return on stockholders investment?� I still would appreciate a detailed analysis of that �other investment� account? Is it still earning those healthy returns to Profits that it used to earn? This will require close watching..

        By the way, if Sigi has practiced what they have not with us stockholders � i.e. keeping current payments on investments at a high return, then they nothing to sweat about� right?

        1. This was about the time of the time he created the totally erroneous (at least in my mind) �core� inflation rate. Mr. Greenspan should tell us all where we can currently purchase that 50� HDTV set for less money than we paid for a 50 years ago� His whole theory (or that of his cohort..Baskin? (sp)) is open to question� $500 Ipods, do not seem like Technical advancement if much for providing lower prices� If anything, my view shows just the opposite.
        Some of us suspect that these gyrations were done strictly to help solve that Soc Sec fund bankruptcy problem � still looming on the horizon???

        I might add that, Mr. Bernanki, the new Fed chief seems to be struggling to justify the core rate theory... why does he keep trying?

39.76-0.73(-1.80%)Sep 26 4:00 PMEDT