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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • woodfrog8 woodfrog8 Apr 17, 2010 10:11 AM Flag

    Earnings Estimate

    TD Ameritrade is showing an estimate of $1.34 for the Quarter. Not sure where they got that or from whom. What are the projected estimates from those on this board who have the means to compute same.
    Saw one the other day here of $1.60 plus or minus $.05!!!

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    • Have not been able to work on EPS yet, so will miss Q1.

      From a little bit that I have been able to update, it looks like EPS for Q1 will come in about 1.39 on 867m in revenue of which 839m is drilling revenue.

      Major deviation from Q4/2009 is CD cost up 30m while revenue down 50m so you get lower EPS at 70% Q4/2009 gross margin vs 65% for Q1 forecast.

      Now, if management moves CD cost to out QTRs, then earnings will be more. From what I see, the only real estimate is lower CD revenue from the rig lists, most JUs are being contracted out at much lower rates.

      Still EPS of 1.40 +/- .08 is not bad.


    • xarp

      I am pretty sure I saw it on the 4th quarter earnings conference call transcript (you can still google it)(22% lower JU revenue) but management is still guessing

      also here are NE's PE
      2000: 44
      2001: 27
      2002: 29
      2003: 31
      2004: 46
      2005: 35
      2006: 16
      2007: 13
      2008: 12
      2009: 7.5

      For the life of me I don't understand why Jay keeps saying the market always thinks drillers deserve a low PE. I can understand the market lowering the PE when oil shot up way past $70 the first time. Everybody knew that was a bubble and a bust coming but I don't see a bubble now.

      We've got a ridiculously low PE and based on that, all the analysts are predicting lower earnings. (so is Jay) Talk about the tail wagging the dog. I don't see lower earnings. Granted with 2 drill ship startups there are going to be charges, higher taxes maybe, some lower ju rates as some are based on the average prices but still.

      Looking ahead father than a day, all the way to the 4th quarter,the first quarter with all 3 newbuilds solidly on the books NE will be sporting 20% higher revenues from the newbuilds alone.

      There are some here that think that that isn't growth.

      A PE of 7.5 is 15% year over year built in growth for shareholders all by itself even assuming management flushes 1/2 cash flows down the hole.

    • Management said jackups would return 20% less revenue this year >>

      I hadn't heard this - do you have a link (or recall which conference call/presentation)?

      Do you mean jackups in aggregate, or the ones rolling over? There jackups that don't reprice this year.

    • Last quarter, NE did earnings of $1.69. When I look at Q1 numbers, most expect earnings to drop fairly substantially. I don't see why. I think they're paying too much attention to the jackup market and not enough attention to the deepwater stuff (in particular newbuilds).

      The Danny Adkins started billing mid-Q4, and it's now billing at $424K+/day now. Clyde Boudreaux is billing an extra $360K/day now. The total drop in jackup revenue is (by my numbers) below the incremental uplift in those two rigs. So I see revenues (and by reference earnings) being flat to up Q/Q. I guess we'll see who is right.

      • 1 Reply to xazp
      • The stock right now is being priced as if it will MISS earnings and/or say something bad on its CC.

        I say this because it is dramatically underperforming the general market, and even underperforming the Oil Service sector, and most of its peers; not to mention underperforming the steady rising trend in Oil prices.

        Given this backdrop, and assuming the market and Oil prices at least hold in this upward pattern; if they have a good report, we should see at least 44-45 if not an outright breakout of the trading channel.

        Would be great if PISMIRE weighed in on earnings. He really crunches the numbers in detail, and is often accurate.

    • scottrade has 1.33

      • 1 Reply to goeff_g
      • 1.33 eps est. + 4.84 (actual eps last 3 qtrs) = 6.17
        Ah, but what multiple? Last 6 months its been bouncing between 6 & 7. Prior to the late 2008 dive, PE was historically above 15. If we use the last 6 months: X 6 = 37 X 7 = 43
        Last 5 quarters were all positive surprises for both earnings & revenue. The co. has produced consistent growth over the years (including the last five). The recent support at 40 would thus seem well justified.
        Two Wild Cards: the industry's glut of rigs & the GS scandel. Next week will be interesting!
        Good luck to all!

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