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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • livecod livecod Jun 1, 2010 6:28 PM Flag

    A sign of massive hysteria on this spill

    You know this oil spill has reached hysteria levels when CNBC starts to quote BP, RIG and HAL on the top of their broadcast along with the DOW and the S & P index.

    This too shall pass and we will get back to the days when BP, RIG and HAL are not quoted along with the Dow index.

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    • You can bet OPEC is watching and ready to pounce.

    • It's not that many rigs. The real question is what is going to happen to those rigs that do not meet the new stipulations.

      If RDS and others move them to other areas around the world then the US is not going to be pulling 1.75 MM barrels a day from the GOM.

      What is going to happen to XOM's refinery business in LA?

      How high is the price of gas at the pump going to go?

    • Indeed, yesterday's selling (and maybe
      today's so far in RIG) indicate the market
      is beginning to factor in a much worse
      case scenario. The trouble here is that
      the hysteria may be somewhat founded. Playing
      the 'what if' card, what happens if they
      cannot cap the well shortly or with a relief well
      and oil continues to leak indefinitely,
      eventually making its way to Florida's
      beaches and/or into the gulf stream towards Europe?
      Plus, hurricane season is fast approaching
      and no one knows what may happen with that.
      And what if the temporary ban on new deep water
      drilling becomes permanent, which is likely
      if this well isn't capped?

      Someone please tell me where I'm all
      wrong to think this is possible, and
      I'll sleep much better.

      • 2 Replies to caninefriend_2000
      • ejohnson47 Jun 2, 2010 1:49 PM Flag

        " oil continues to leak indefinitely,
        eventually making its way to Florida's
        beaches and/or into the gulf stream towards Europe?"

        Do you know how much oil seeps out of the ocean floor naturally every year? Two Exxon Valdez's per year in the gulf alone?

        How much between here and Europe? In other words, do not worry about it going to Europe.

        The selling of Rig may be founded if they are found liable. But NE? Except for a possible 10% haircut at most from when it was trading near 45, I cannot fathom why it would be down any more than that. Based on fundamentals, it was even low when it was at 45. But trading at 40% down! This is a gift if you have the money. This window of opportunity will be shut quickly as soon as shorts start to cover.

      • So exploratory drilling stops and the world eventually goes back to horse and buggy?

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