On the latest Rig Status Report, Noble has 6 semisubmersibles in the Gulf Of Mexico.
One, the Noble Danny Adkins, was set to begin drilling on 5/28 for Shell. This well is suspended for 6 months under the moratorium, meaning Noble misses out on 446K a day for 6 months (roughly 80 million).
That seems to be the only one I can see affected by the moratorium. Not sure if they still get paid by Shell or not, I would assume not. Noble's valuation is the most attractive of the drillers and not affected much by the moratorium. Of course Obama could always extend it or take more drastic measures.
The 80.28 million lost on the Shell contract with the Noble Danny Adkins.
Then the Romano gets stacked. Conservatively, if the Romano could have been contracted out and earned the same 375K day rate for the 4 months left in the moratorium, then NE loses out on another 45 million. I say conservatively because they had no contract lined up during this time period, so this is worst case scenario type thing.
That is 125.280 in revenue lost, at a high profit margin (46.12 that NE had in 2009), this translates to 57.78 million in net income lost, or .224 cents a share.
Unless the moratorium gets expanded or intensified, NE is looking like a real nice play
The Romano gets stacked, the others depend on the force majeure provisions embedded in each contract. I've asked IR if/when they'll issue guidance and they don't have enough information to issue any statement yet.
If RIG's conference call questions/answers about FM are any guide (and it seems reasonable that they might be similar to NE) then NE can hope to get a majority of the contracted fees over that 6 months. RIG mgmt was not utterly specific, but to rough cut it, most rigs will get 70-100% of the original economics, some will get substantially less.