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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • woodfrog8 woodfrog8 Jan 8, 2013 8:17 AM Flag

    Raymond James Action

    Can anyone possibly give an indication regarding Raymond James decision today to drop NE from Market out-perform to Market perform?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • don't know the specifics, but do know that they downgraded NE and 10 other oil service stocks in mid June last year....those stocks went down a little over a week period and then spent months going straight up. In NE's case it went from around 32 to 30 briefly before spending 2 months in a steady uptrend to above 38 by August.

      • 2 Replies to nysfparachute
      • So, it appears we'll have yet another month were you could accumulate (or sell puts) as we approached 34 and should have lightened (or sold calls) as 38 came into view.

        A boring, moderately profitable month, as I sold some 32 puts for 42 cents 3 weeks ago and then got a meager 15 cents for some 38 calls a week ago. Not great trades, but it appears they might both expire to my benefit. I feel a little like the vulture who wonders if it wouldn't be better to just kill something (i.e., trade the stock more aggressively) but for now I'm waiting.

      • Sounds like RJ jumped on the bearish bandwagon last summer just as that early summer swoon was ending. I hadn't noticed that mistake, although I don't follow analysts very closely.

        RJ did have a very bearish call on oil for 2013, which was out in the last week: "So using our bottom-up, play-by-play oil model, we think to get going with the slowdown you need to see pricing average $65 for 2013." Yikes.

        If you're looking for $65 oil, NE's not a market perform, it's a short (this being my take-away on RJ's call, not my personal opinion). I know there's no shortage of oil, due to the unexpected boom in US onshore production, but I'd be surprised to see it at $65 this year.

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