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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Feb 12, 2013 12:50 PM Flag

    out years

    Looking out into to future based on available information.
    2013 shows average growth to $3.41
    2014 shows above average growth to $5.02
    2015 shows above average growth to $6.17
    2016 shows average growth to $6.93
    2017 shows below average growth to $7.12
    2018 shows below average growth to $7.35.

    The key to the forecast is "flat" rig rate growth with current cost growth rate. So you have steady revenue with less profit from increasing operating cost (may not happen).
    Which means the out years should be understated if the world is still going to drill in deep water assuming rig rates will increase.
    When NE finishes its current restructuring of the fleet, these numbers will change. I see two branches, A= higher dividend with little debt B= average dividend, stock buybacks with more rigs on order.


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