I sold 1/2 of my shares here....because it's been rejected here (36 area) a number of times. If we're going higher the typical thing would be to break above 36 by about .50 or so, then retest down to under 36, back and forth a little, but if we hold around the 200 day that could form a secure base for a rally attempt to the 50 day at 37.72. I really don't have that much of a feel for direction at this point. I could certainly see oil prices come down some because if they don't, retail sales are going to get hurt as $4.00 gas puts pressure on the low end consumer. If oil comes down, we won't get that as a tailwind. Also, a 9 day stock market rally....geez, tough to bet on more than that. On the other hand this is just the type of situation where everyone is thinking like me which is why the exact opposite happens. I could see a sudden 100 point up Dow day to get the lagging S&P up to an all time high like the Dow just did.
I sold the rest of my shares today, and now I'm just going to wait for a market pullback to buy back in. I'm going to be careful though because there is a real danger here if the market goes into a "sell in May and go away" mode like it did the last couple of years. I also think that people might sell earlier than May while prices are high in anticipation of the sell in May response. The danger is that you buy at the beginning of a dip that just keeps going through September. I've gotten stuck like that before and just holding losses hoping the market will get strong again in the fall....don't like that feeling.
Ahh fundamental analysis and technical analysis working in harmony. I love it. A few other thoughts on why I'm thinking we stay in the $34-36 range for the next while: few catalysts on the horizon except earnings on 4/16, which will be mediocre; on the flip side, the dividend vote is also in April, and assuming the jump to $1/share happens that may provide a stronger floor. I'm in, after stupidly buying in hopes of a scalp trade as we were coming down from $39, but in a perfect world would be watching from the outside and waiting for something in the $34 range. A good time to be selling short-term calls here, I think.