I have to assume you are referring to the almost non existent market value for CERP and basically saying that is where KIOR is heading. You may very well be correct, and frankly as we head toward the end of January with not one word from the company, not even a date for their earnings release, I must confess that even though I am long the stock I am getting a little nervous. My quick analysis of KIOR is that they must demonstrate three things, fairly quickly. 1) They must start producing product in quantity from the existing plant with the associated revenues, 2) they must secure adequate financing for the next 2 - 3 years to complete their second production facility and 3) they must prove that they are able to increase yields to the point where they can be competative. Unless I'm mistaken, they fail on any of these three things and the company will not survive long term. I happen to believe they will succeed, but then I'm no expert.
Last year on Feb. 14th they announced March 26th as 2011's full year earnings release, so look for that info to come out in the middle of next month. In my opinion we would know by now if they were not manufacturing fuel. It took Range Fuels no time at all to shutter their plant once they failed. I have to assume that news would have dropped by now if it wasn't working. And if it is working, they are the only ones to succeed with this type of fuel (remember it's a fuel in high demand due to EPA regs) so financing won't be a problem. This could be a rough ride into late March if they choose to remain silent though. Any news could help this stock rebound. Volume is so low. People are scared of this stock right now. The market for this industry as a whole seems to be in trouble the last couple of weeks. A success story is desperately needed. KIOR seems to be the only one in a position to provide such a story.