I figure if a continue is announced in March, it may not be too bad if the statistics driven by the additional 176 events are just on the edge of significance, but not quite there until the final look.
While the markey may be figuing in a continue, they have not fully accounted for the upside when and If Stimuvax is approved.
I have run my numbers in a conservative manner. I have already baked in another 10 to 20 Mil shares for future S3 type releases before we get there.
and IF Stimuvax evenually succeeds it still gets numbers in triple digits. Right now though? getting there has some hurdles and the market seems to be pricing it in.
The rumors are out, we know it.
Some of the inner circle mayve leaked.
The only way I would believe not is if Kirkman went to KGAA and asked them about the 529 trigger event, when it happened of if it happened.
Right now? seems the market is pricing in Red's rumor from europe that it happened in Nov , Kirkman's perfectly contented remark about a continue (and the impact), and the possibilty that the longer it takes now, perhaps it means a continue.
I am saying, I am comfortbale with all of the above including the subsequent share releases to fund ONTY and the pipleline and their heavy bonuses and such. The thing about that is ONTY is lean, so the people musr have to work harder. rather than hiring a bunch of new people, they must have good people that work longer, harder and they pay them double in bonuses and stock options and such, OK that's an assumption about hard they work- but I'm being generous today.
Just saying, I think a continue is being factored in and although it may get a little bumpy, it's all baked in the cake in the end if Stimuvax succeeds in the final look.
I'm hunkering down with ONTY long, still hoping for an IA success but have resigned to the notion of a continue.
I am not in the camp that says the longer the better because I think the trigger happened last year. However, the final look may still happen this year or early next year.
While his posting style annoys the hell out of me, he might be right about a continue not being so bad. It is entirely possible the data will show Stimuvax is effective but does not meet the required statistical significance. The additional events required for the final look may push the data over that threshold.