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Hong Kong Television Network Li Message Board

  • nrloomba nrloomba Mar 26, 2009 11:23 AM Flag

    Form 6-K file today with SEC 40% increase anticipated. GET IN NOW

    The preliminary consolidated results of the Company and its subsidiaries (collectively the “Results”) prepared in accordance with the Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards issued by the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants show that for the period ended 28 February 2009, as compared with the corresponding period as disclosed in the 2008 Interim Report:

    1. The Turnover is estimated to increase by more than 10%


    2. The EBITDA is estimated to increase by more than 20%


    3. The Profit Attributable to Shareholders is estimated to increase by more than 40%

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    • Maybe this is why City (1137.hk) is up 25% in Hong Kong trading tonight -11;00 EST. Hope it holds.

    • Nrlooma, thanks for pointing out those press releases today. They are the best thing I have read this year (so far).

      The "preliminary" numbers certainly point out that the 50 percent haircut in CTEL stock price this past year is completely unjustified. Will the stock advance back to at least $4 a share pretty soon? I certainly hope so. (Even at $4, the stock is extremely cheap. I have thought for the past couple years that this stock deserves a price of at least $7 a share. Mr. Market doesn't agree with me. Mr. Market is a bit of a "douche" at times).

      Going over some of their “preliminary” estimates for the first half of 2009......(I am extremely tired as I write this so excuse any mistakes)........

      Even when comparing against the subscriber rate at the end of 2008, you get excellent growth rates.

      Broadband 350,000 (+10 %..... end of 2008 was 316,000)
      Voice 352,000 (+ 7% ...... end of 2008 was 329,000)
      IP-TV 170,000 (+ 9% .......end of 2008 was 156,000)

      Total subscribers 872,000 (+9%......... end of 2008 was 801,000)

      Even IDD, which was reported to have fallen by 18 percent (when compared to first half of 2008), didn't do too bad. In fact, when compared to the SECOND half of 2008, the 245 million minutes is the same number. (They had 574 million minutes in 2008, with 329 million in the first half).


      The estimated percentage increases, (10%, 20%, and 40% for Turnover, EBITDA, and Profit), result in Turnover, EBITDA, and Earnings of HK$686m, HK$225m, and HK$67m for the first six months. Annualized, you get HK$1,372m, HK$450m, and HK$134m.

      In addition, if they were successful in buying back the senior debt, they could add HK$153m in earnings for the second half of 2009. (That is assuming all debt is tendered by 04/08/2009).

      Using 658,000,000 shares,and “annualizing” the estimate from the first half, the P/E ratio of 1137.HK (priced at Wednesday's cloing price of HK$0.90) would be about 4.4. That assumes no growth in the second half, which is highly unlikely. And if they show a gain on the proposed debt buyback, the P/E could approach 2!! Un-freaking-real.I have no idea why this stock is not much, much, higher than what is is now.

      I currently own 30,800 shares of this stock. I will take it up to 50,000 if the share price doesn't go up above $3.

      • 1 Reply to dee_ocotillo_man
      • I would also like to thank CTEL management for letting us know "what's up" with their business and not making us wait intil Mid-May. (And also, when they released "prelim" results for year-end 2008, they said that profit "...is estimated to increase by more than 200%...", and the earnings actually increased by 330%. So they have a history of being conservative with their preiliminary estimates.

        Bondholders should tender their debt and buy the equity.

 
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