I'm going on record predicting a more modest 35-40 cent final dividend. I have no problem with being wrong and will gladly accept a 60 cent dividend. And anyone with a long term outlook, the dividends in 2012 should be pretty phenomenal, if in fact CTEL does finish their fibre network by the end of 2011. (And doesn't find any other ways to spend money).
And what if the HK dollar was finally allowed to appreciate against the US dollar? I read in the FT a couple days ago an article entitled "Hong Kong faces heat on dollar peg", an excerpt stated....
>>>Thanks to the peg, Hong Kong is importing its monetary policy from the US. But the American policy of zero interest rates to stimulate a listless economy is hardly appropriate for an economy that is growing at a rate of more than 6 per cent a year, say analysts. And while the US is desperately attempting to boost asset prices, Hong Kong’s property prices are already high – and rising. If the peg were to disappear tomorrow, many analysts forecast that the Hong Kong dollar would appreciate by a minimum of 10-15 per cent. But will it?<<<
Caveat emptor, many have been predicting for years that Hong Kong would let their currency rise in value, but they have yet to do it.
Today, Nov 10 we see that 0.135 HKD = 0.0174171 USD
So 1.74 us cents x 20 hk shares/us adr = 35 us cents for the 2nd six month period. Add in 44 us cents from the first six months and we have an annual divy of 79 us cents. On a us$13 stock, that's a 6% yield, which i believe is the approx expectation here. Beats the money mkt
Hong Kong: 'Goodbye U.S. dollar, Hello Chinese yuan' Submitted by Tony Richardson on Sat, 6 Nov 2010 A look at the changing face of global settlement currency
Hong Kong is Asia’s leading shipping and aviation hub with more worldwide cargo vessel and flight destinations than Chinese ports, and is better able to consolidate smaller shipments and navigate efficient routes, which saves on shipping costs. And because of its unique history and geography, Hong Kong serves as the “gateway” to China for Western companies, and for Chinese manufacturers who likewise rely on Hong Kong to help broker “re-export” arrangements with the West – a process by which Chinese companies export their goods to Hong Kong for preparation to re-export them to their final destination. Re-exportation accounts for about half of Hong Kong’s total trade – HK$2.4 trillion ($310 billion).
Since the handover of this former British colony in 1997, China has grown in its appreciation of Hong Kong as a “mediator” between East and West. That being said, China is yet determined to integrate Hong Kong back into the greater fold. The following is the good, the bad and the ugly of recent developments on Hong Kong, along with details on Chinese efforts to expand use of the yuan in Hong Kong – a process that will eventually cement the decline of the U.S. dollar as the primary international settlement currency:
The Good: On October 29, 2010, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said yuan deposits at the city’s banks more than doubled to a record 149 billion yuan ($22 billion) in the last six months; and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is up 31% over the same period. Hong Kong enjoys one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world – at 4.2%; has a current account surplus of $28.34 billion (2009); and has posted five straight quarters of economic growth. The government’s forecast was raised from a range of 4 to 5% GDP growth back in May to a range of 5 to 6% expansion.
The Bad: Over the past six months, the Hong Kong dollar is down 9% against the Singapore dollar; down 14% against the Japanese yen; down 14% against the Euro; down 16% against the Swiss franc; and down 19% Australian dollar. Home prices have surged 47% since the beginning of 2009. Hong Kong has no agriculture industry or natural resources to speak of, so its imports make up just over half of GDP – HK$2.7 trillion ($348 billion). Domestic exports represent a mere 1% of total trade. The Hong Kong services sector accounts for 92% of GDP, and industry 7.9% (2009).
I just can't see CTEL giving .35 to .40 cents final dividend. They increased 100% interm dividend payout from .07 to .167 cents from prior year to this year. Last final year was .41 cents. Going under .41 cents is not in the cards.
They increased over 100,000 broad band enrollment for 2010 ending in August. Their are coming to end to CAPEX for rollout expansion.
All the money it is generating in cash flow will go directly to shareholders. Minimum would be .50 cents and high would be above .60 cents.
I hope I'm right. We will find out tomorrow morning.