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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

  • agnmills agnmills Nov 11, 2013 3:31 PM Flag

    Estimates for 2 Q

    This just keeps getting better I looked at the bottom of the TUES page on my Morgan Stanley account and they have two analysts they quote, from Reuters, as following TUES and they are estimating 2 Q eps, which is Xmas period for TUES, at 49 cent for the Q. Oh, my, oh, my, there is going to be a blood bath when they come up short on that one, I am personally estimating they will be lucky to break even. Any idea when they will report those figures? I am thinking maybe mid Feb? Thankfully, my puts have a date of Mar 14.

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    • While I'm of the buy opinion if you take a 12 to 18 month optic I do agree that the earnings estimate will in no way be hit by TUES this quarter. The won't come close to 49... BUT it won't be a "blood bath". EPS isn't what's going to move the stock. No one is buying right now based on EPS. Three things will move TUES higher:
      1. Increased same store sales Y over Y
      2. Expanding margins & higher inventory throughput (one without the other is useless for what they're trying to do)
      3. Positive traction in the turnaround efforts especially as it relates to DC infrastructure and settling on new store layouts (last CC MR stated they wouldn't open more of the same so we want to hear what model they will move to).

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Why don't you grow a set and short the stock if you are so certain that it will crater ? You probably should do a little background on the new CEO however, as he is one of the most successful retail managers in the last 25 years but hey go for it. But do it with panache no #$%$ puts.

      • 1 Reply to fabricone1
      • And you don't think that buying puts takes gonads. Try it some time and let me know, after a stock doubles it's estimated loss, and the stock goes up (as TUES did) how long you can go before you change your underwear. All the personal shots aside I have done nothing but consistenly tell everyone that would listen that, from my retail background and experience, that TUES was not going to make it.
        You want a successful retail CEO, Mike Balmuth, at ROST, that's a retail stock I have been in since '98, compare your "new CEO" to him, cause that's his competition to say nothing of Carol at TJX. TUES is not competiting against Joanna's, this is the bigs.

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