I am a swing trader now, but 3 to 4 years ago I was a day trader. I've followed and traded Nvidia for the last 4 years.So I have some sense of this company and it's stock.
The introduction of a dividend and the resumption or the threat of the stock buyback has brought a level of stability to the stock that I like. In addition, Nvidia has approached a level of critical mass in Geforce Graphics with 2012 GPU market share gains along with Tesla and Quadro growth and profit margins. NVX and Gaming Grid initiatives have a lot of potential too.
Tegra is also approaching critical mass. I suspect that by this time next year Tegra revenue will be at least 50% above this year's and we Nvidia will be talking in terms of number of design wins rather than individual wins just like they track their PC discrete market wins. In other words Nvidia will become a bet on particular markets like tablets and smartphones or severs, etc. rather than the latest rumor on the internet. Icera modems should also come into play next year.
"So where will the PPS be in a year, you think? And where will annualized share earnings be? I like the new, more stable stock price, too, just wish the shares were trading in the $20s, not the $12s..."
First the annualized share earnings:
1 year $1.15 GAAP, $1.40 Non GAAP
2 year $1.50 GAAP, #1.75 Non GAAP
Price per share:
1 year $16.50
2 year $21.00
Now $0.075 per quarter
1 year $0.09 per quarter
2 year $0.11 per quarter