When the insiders are open to sell, this thing is going to drop like you will not believe. The insiders have worked themselves to near death under very painful conditions. Once they can sell, they will and this stock is tanking.
Seems like people are thinking the 3D card competiton will play out like the sound card -- default monopoly by one proprietary standard. It won't happen, because OpenGL is open -- it keeps the competition fairer for longer, until full OpenGL is the baseline and proprietary extensions are created. (There's also DirectX, but I think that "standard" will be deprecated as OpenGL becomes the real standard.)
Until then, use of 3D will continue to grow, and increasingly be part of numerous applications that are not video games. These apps and games will be demanding WRT color quality, reflections, shadows, b-spline surfaces, textures, and the like. There's a LOT of time for all the players to compete, lose money, and, hopefully, make money. The market for 3D will grow.
>Seems like people are thinking the 3D card competiton will play >out like the sound card -- default monopoly by one proprietary
Actually there are two main standards in sound cards right now- A3D's and Creative Labs'.
>default monopoly by one proprietary standard.
Proprietary and standard are opposites, are they not? Not being nitpicky- I'm saying that when most companies adopt a proprietary system, it becomes standard. VHS anyone?
>There's also DirectX, but I think that "standard" will be >deprecated as OpenGL becomes the real standard.
Even DirectX and OpenGL are supposed to merge. So which one wins really doesn't matter.
>Until then, use of 3D will continue to grow, and increasingly be
>part of numerous applications that are not video games.
I agree. But do you think application makers want to wait for a year for the next version of DirectX to add things into their programs? And what if Microsoft says no? Or postpones it?
That's why Glide is such an advantage- it's talking directly to the hardware and can be changed much more quickly then DirectX or OpenGL.
Now of course, there will (or at least should) always be an open standard. But why sort through all of that extra code of long-gone video card support and bug fixes just to get the support you need? This is where DirectX fails, and why it will never be as fast as a direct-to-hardware API.
>There's a LOT of time for all the players to compete, lose >money, and, hopefully, make money.
I agree. And for the time being, there can be more then one company at the top. HOWEVER, when the graphics market finally attracts the big guys, only the big guys will survive. There will be all sorts of buyouts and mergers.
Now do you honestly think that this company can stay single going into 2000?
Personally, I can't see ANY chip-only graphics companies staying alone. They will either merge or be eaten up. That's one advantage 3dfx had- they could afford to buy someone out and become a huge company. Nvidia certainly doesn't have the money for that and the clock is ticking...