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Pan American Silver Corp. Message Board

  • billyj88 billyj88 Jul 31, 2012 10:25 AM Flag

    What's up with the Sept 15

    8,806 contracts this morning.

    I like that confidence.

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    • Billy, thanks for calling attention to this and here is one possible explanation. It could have been a bet on QE3 and/or ECB action. A selloff in the near-term may indicate the long side did not get what they wanted there. Or, possibly, someone knows something about upcoming changes in Argentinian politics.

      There was also a little activity in the Jan 2014 $18 and $20 strikes, but nothing hear 9,000+ contracts.

      • 2 Replies to wwwhead222
      • Paul, is this you?

      • dcpayne1 Aug 2, 2012 10:59 AM Flag

        Head, Unbelievable! Mario Draghi and the ECB at this point have ZERO credibility as all of the promises of last week have been nothing more than conjecture at the very best. The Germans are against turning the ESM into a banking mechanism and buying sovereign debt as the inflation shows up on their balance sheet as well with higher oil prices etc.

        On the initial statement that the key interest rate in Europe was to be unchanged, the Euro rallied sharply higher. However, Mr. Draghi’s press conference which started a few minutes ago the price action has come tumbling down in the EUR/USD currency pair and sits basically unchanged from yesterday after all the wild action this morning.

        At the moment equity futures are getting clubbed and the EUR/USD has traversed all the way back down and into the red. The Russell 2000 futures are getting absolutely crushed and commodities by and large are trading to the downside.

    • dcpayne1 Aug 1, 2012 2:47 PM Flag

      You like 8,800 contracts? Take a look at GLD.. you'll like that number even better.

    • Unless you've got some other source of info, the only thing you know is that a large number of 15 calls were traded (total VOLUME). You don't know whether the large increase was from someone BUYING calls (bullish) or SELLING calls (bearish) -- either way contributes to volume.

      I'm bullish on PAAS/precious metals, and PAAS sure is cheap here, but you can't automatically assume large call volume is someone being bullish. They could be selling naked calls (very bearish & speculative) or selling covered calls against a stock position to lock in some gains (slightly bearish).

    • I am showing over 15k contract today Sept $15 calls. That's betting on 1% of the shares out.

      The price settled at $1.10 up 45 cents. That bet will pay off nice if PAAS pops a few bucks by next month.

      You can control a lot stock with options but I am starting to lose faith in the integrity of those markets. If we get another 08 meltdown I think all options will expire worthless.

      PAAS needs to get on the ball and nab a multimillion oz producer. Lots on sale for anywhere from $100-300M. If they aquired Golden Minerals that would cost a little over $200M and they would get over 400M Ag-eq ozs (most is Ag, then Au, then about 25% base metals.) And their Mexican mine is could get a big mill expansion to 3000 tpd and then we're talking 8M ozs Ag a year. They could trump HL offer in the USSIF hostile war. That is so cheap they could use shares. US Silver holders would jump at chance to participate in PAAS instead of HL all cash lowball deal. I'd like to see PAAS make a bid for MUX. That would give them more Argentina exposure, but also a lot of Mexican exposure and several million ozs gold in Nevada. MUX also has a huge copper project with a lot of NPV that is priced in to the shares at about zero.

    • Not sure who the buyer is but someone expects $15 PAAS so be a great bargain after paying $1.60 for the options.. Lets see now, who could that be ???

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