Judging from the way the stock is acting today, it looks more like they're about to CUT the dividend than increase it. There's obviously something seriously wrong with this company. I know, I know.... the whole group has been very weak of late, but CINF has been leading the pack lower. Today, the whole market is rebounding while CINF is down over 2%. I hate to cut and run, but I also hate to own a stock that is dropping like a lead balloon for no apparent reason.
When a company that is recognized as a "dividend aristocrat" wants to maintain that distinction but doesn't have the earnings to increase the dividend, they often do so by paying the most minimal amount possible. That's often a sign that the dividend is not secure and will eventually be slashed or eliminated. Falling from the list of dividend aristocrats will usually severely hurt the stock since funds that hold only dividend aristocrats (there are several) will be forced to sell. On the other hand, when a stock finally meets the requirement to be a dividend aristocrat, those funds will buy it. An increase of a fraction of a cent doesn't fool anyone. Any insurance company that pays out more than half of earnings to shareholders should be looked at as a candidate for an eventual dividend cut unless they already have huge reserves. With extremely low interest rates, it's getting harder and harder for companies to build reserves and still maintain the dividend.